Brasileirão Série A · Review
Brasileirão Série A matchweek 30 review: results, xG and what the model said
Every Brasileirão Série A result from matchweek 30 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 30 (12–13 October 2026), is complete: three matches, 13 goals (4.33 a game), one home win, one draw and one away win. Over 2.5 goals landed in two of the three and both teams scored in three.
The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Coritiba v Botafogo (1–1), which it had at 24%; the one it rated most likely was Atletico Paranaense's win in Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense (1–4), at 53%.
After the round, Flamengo lead on 64 points, one point clear of Palmeiras, with Atletico Paranaense third on 53. The bottom three are Gremio (31), Remo (25), Chapecoense-sc (18).
Match by match
Coritiba 1–1 BotafogoMon 12 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Coritiba 37%, the draw 24% and Botafogo 39%, with Botafogo favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.16–0.93: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 64%, did not come in. Pick published: Over 2.5 at 1.87 — lost.
Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico ParanaenseMon 12 Oct, 23:30
Before kick-off the model had Chapecoense-sc 23%, the draw 23% and Atletico Paranaense 53%, so Atletico Paranaense winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.75–1.39: Chapecoense-sc created the better chances. The headline call, Atletico Paranaense to win at 53%, came in. Pick published: Chapecoense-sc -0.5 at 3.50 — lost.
RB Bragantino 4–2 CruzeiroTue 13 Oct, 01:00
Before kick-off the model had RB Bragantino 39%, the draw 26% and Cruzeiro 35%, so RB Bragantino winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.68–2.80: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in. Pick published: RB Bragantino -0.5 at 2.15 — won.
The numbers this season
Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.68 goals a game over 299 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
Brasileirão Série A3Prediction
More on Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série APreviewBrasileirão Série A predictions: matchweek 31 (17–20 October 2026)
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.