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Brasileirão Série A predictions: matchweek 31 (17–20 October 2026)

Every Brasileirão Série A match in matchweek 31 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 31: ten matches, played across 17–20 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Botafogo, 63% to beat Chapecoense-sc at home; the most evenly balanced game is Gremio v Cruzeiro (Gremio 34%, draw 26%, Cruzeiro 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc, at 3.44; the tightest looks Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama, at 2.33.

Going into the round, Flamengo lead on 64 points, one point clear of Palmeiras, with Atletico Paranaense third on 53. The bottom three are Gremio (31), Remo (25), Chapecoense-sc (18).

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.68 goals a game over 299 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Mirassol v InternacionalSat 17 Oct, 00:00

Our model makes Mirassol 45%, the draw 27% and Internacional 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Mirassol to win at 45%. Mirassol are 15th on 33 points from 30; Internacional are 16th on 32 points from 30. Mirassol have won two of their last five; Internacional have won two of their last five. Mirassol have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Botafogo v Chapecoense-scSat 17 Oct, 22:00

Our model makes Botafogo 63%, the draw 20% and Chapecoense-sc 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 45%. Botafogo are 12th on 36 points from 30; Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 18 points from 29. Botafogo have won one of their last five; Chapecoense-sc have won one of their last five.

Atletico-MG v CoritibaSat 17 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Atletico-MG 60%, the draw 22% and Coritiba 18%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Atletico-MG to win at 60%. Atletico-MG are 7th on 47 points from 30; Coritiba are 11th on 39 points from 30. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Coritiba are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Atletico Paranaense v PalmeirasSat 17 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Atletico Paranaense 31%, the draw 27% and Palmeiras 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 30; Palmeiras are 2nd on 63 points from 30. Atletico Paranaense have won two of their last five; Palmeiras are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Sao Paulo v Vasco DA GamaSun 18 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Sao Paulo 41%, the draw 29% and Vasco DA Gama 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. Sao Paulo are 10th on 39 points from 30; Vasco DA Gama are 14th on 35 points from 29. Sao Paulo have won two of their last five; Vasco DA Gama have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sao Paulo wins, draws and Vasco DA Gama wins.

Fluminense v SantosSun 18 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Fluminense 50%, the draw 23% and Santos 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 30; Santos are 8th on 42 points from 30. Fluminense have won three of their last five; Santos have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Gremio v CruzeiroSun 18 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Gremio 34%, the draw 26% and Cruzeiro 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 55%. Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 30; Cruzeiro are 6th on 48 points from 30. Gremio are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Cruzeiro have won three of their last five. Cruzeiro have won three of the sides' last three meetings.

Bahia v FlamengoSun 18 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Bahia 23%, the draw 25% and Flamengo 52%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Flamengo to win at 52%. Bahia are 5th on 49 points from 30; Flamengo are 1st on 64 points from 30. Bahia have won three of their last five; Flamengo are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Bahia wins, draws and Flamengo wins.

Remo v RB BragantinoSun 18 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Remo 32%, the draw 29% and RB Bragantino 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Remo are 19th on 25 points from 30; RB Bragantino are 9th on 40 points from 30. Remo are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); RB Bragantino have won one of their last five.

Corinthians v VitoriaTue 20 Oct, 00:00

Our model makes Corinthians 44%, the draw 29% and Vitoria 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Corinthians are 17th on 32 points from 30; Vitoria are 13th on 36 points from 30. Corinthians have lost all of their last five; Vitoria have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.