Sao Paulo v 
Vasco DA Gama
- Over 1.5
- 68%
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Over 3.5
- 21%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- Sao Paulo 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.27 – 1.06
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sao Paulo favoured against Vasco DA Gama
Our model makes Sao Paulo 41% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 29% and Vasco DA Gama at 30%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Sao Paulo against 1.06 for Vasco DA Gama — a slight edge to Sao Paulo on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-0 10%
- 0-1 10%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Played | 29 |
| 11-6-13 | W-D-L | 9-8-12 |
| 1.30 | Pts / game | 1.21 |
| 1.17 | Goals for / game | 1.24 |
| 1.17 | Goals against / game | 1.45 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 59% |
| 57% | BTTS | 62% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 9-3-3 | Home record | 7-3-5 |
| 2-3-10 | Away record | 2-5-7 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sao Paulo · Vasco DA Gama
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 20.0 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 9.3 | Corners | 10.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 15.3 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 54 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.80 | xG | 0.92 |
| 3 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Conceded
| 14.3 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 2.5 |
| 3.7 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.67 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 46 | Possession % | 41 |
| 0.79 | xG | 0.31 |
| 3 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Form comparison
| Sao Paulo | Metric | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 | Shots on target | 6.40 (better) |
| 13.80 | Total shots | 18.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 | Corners | 7.80 (better) |
| 51.4 | Possession % | 52.8 (better) |
| 467 (better) | Passes | 456 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.60 | Fouls | 9.60 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.60 |
| 0.20 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Sao Paulo wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Vasco DA Gama wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Vasco DA Gama v Sao Paulo2–12026-04-18
- Vasco DA Gama v Sao Paulo0–22025-11-02
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 | Flamengo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 | Palmeiras won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 | Atletico Paranaense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 | Fluminense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 | Bahia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 | Cruzeiro won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 | Atletico-MG won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 | Santos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 | RB Bragantino won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 | Coritiba won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 | Botafogo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 | Vitoria won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 | Vasco DA Gama won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 | Corinthians won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 | Gremio won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 | Remo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |