Corinthians v 
Mirassol
Match statistics
| Corinthians | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Shots | 1 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 556 | Passes | 391 |
| 60% | Possession % | 40% |
| 2.52 | xG | 0.03 |
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- Over 3.5
- 18%
- Both score
- 45%
- Model pick
- Corinthians 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.13 – 1.08
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Under 1.5
Why this price?
Back under 1.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 1 goal or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.16. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 7.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.80 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Corinthians 1.13, Mirassol 1.08.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Draw
Why this price?
Back the draw at 3.95 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 30% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 24%; we judge it at 27%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.73. The offered 3.95 implies only 25%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.49 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Corinthians 1.13, Mirassol 1.08.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Corinthians | 36.1% | 2.77 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | -15.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.75 Betfair | 26.7% | +3.7 |
| Match result | Mirassol | 33.5% | 2.99 | 4.80 Dafabet | 20.8% | +12.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -9.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | +7.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.05 Bet365 | 48.8% | -10.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.87 Betano | 53.5% | +8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 5.46 | 3.60 BetVictor | 27.8% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | +6.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | -2.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 54.6% | 1.83 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | +4.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Corinthians v Mirassol: too close to call
Our model makes Corinthians 36% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 30% and Mirassol at 34%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Corinthians against 1.08 for Mirassol — almost nothing to Corinthians on expected output. A combined 2.21 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-0 12%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Corinthians | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 9-10-15 | W-D-L | 10-10-14 |
| 1.09 | Pts / game | 1.18 |
| 1.06 | Goals for / game | 1.15 |
| 1.24 | Goals against / game | 1.41 |
| 44% | Over 2.5 | 47% |
| 56% | BTTS | 65% |
| 35% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 26% |
| 6-4-7 | Home record | 7-6-4 |
| 3-6-8 | Away record | 3-4-10 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Corinthians · Mirassol
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 20.0 | Shots | 12.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 7.1 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 3.33 | Cards | 2.23 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.56 | xG | 1.73 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.1 | Shots | 20.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 3.02 | Cards | 2.53 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 45 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.59 | xG | 1.63 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Corinthians | Metric | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.50 |
| 16.80 (better) | Total shots | 13.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 58.2 (better) | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 515 (better) | Passes | 480 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 10.75 (better) |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 1.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Corinthians wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Mirassol wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Corinthians v Mirassol2–02026-10-30
- Mirassol v Corinthians2–12026-05-03
- Corinthians v Mirassol3–02025-10-05
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |