Brasileirão Série A · Review

Brasileirão Série A matchweek 33 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Brasileirão Série A result from matchweek 33 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 1 Nov 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 33 (28–31 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 26 goals (2.60 a game), seven home wins, one draw and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the ten and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Santos v Palmeiras (0–0), which it had at 23%; the one it rated most likely was RB Bragantino's win in RB Bragantino v Chapecoense-sc (3–0), at 64%.

After the round, Flamengo lead on 73 points, three points clear of Palmeiras, with Cruzeiro third on 57. The bottom three are Internacional (35), Remo (29), Chapecoense-sc (21).

Match by match

Fluminense 2–1 InternacionalWed 28 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Fluminense 52%, the draw 25% and Internacional 23%, so Fluminense winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.57–1.10: Fluminense created the better chances. The headline call, Fluminense to win at 52%, came in. Pick published: Fluminense -0.25 at 1.75 — won.

RB Bragantino 3–0 Chapecoense-scWed 28 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had RB Bragantino 64%, the draw 21% and Chapecoense-sc 15%, so RB Bragantino winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.59–0.79: RB Bragantino created the better chances. The headline call, RB Bragantino to win at 64%, came in.

Santos 0–0 PalmeirasWed 28 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Santos 26%, the draw 23% and Palmeiras 51%, with Palmeiras favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.64–1.87: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Palmeiras to win at 51%, did not come in. Picks published: Santos -0.5 at 3.00 — lost; Over 2.5 at 2.07 — lost.

Bahia 3–2 Sao PauloThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Bahia 39%, the draw 30% and Sao Paulo 31%, so Bahia winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.13–0.89: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 55%, did not come in. Picks published: Bahia -0.5 at 1.98 — won; Under 1.5 at 3.40 — lost.

Remo 2–1 BotafogoThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Remo 34%, the draw 26% and Botafogo 39%, with Botafogo favoured; it put Remo winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.58–0.88: Botafogo created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in. Pick published: Remo -0.5 at 2.43 — won.

Atletico-MG 0–1 CruzeiroThu 29 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Atletico-MG 45%, the draw 25% and Cruzeiro 30%, with Atletico-MG favoured; it put Cruzeiro winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.65–2.60: Cruzeiro created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in. Picks published: Atletico-MG -0.25 at 2.08 — lost; Over 3.5 at 3.40 (free pick) — lost.

Vasco DA Gama 1–4 FlamengoThu 29 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Vasco DA Gama 20%, the draw 25% and Flamengo 54%, so Flamengo winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.24–1.66: Flamengo created the better chances. The headline call, Flamengo to win at 54%, came in. Pick published: Vasco DA Gama -0.5 at 3.55 — lost.

Gremio 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseFri 30 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Gremio 31%, the draw 26% and Atletico Paranaense 43%, with Atletico Paranaense favoured; it put Gremio winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.47–1.37: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Picks published: Atletico Paranaense at 3.10 — lost; Over 2.5 at 2.25 — lost.

Corinthians 2–0 MirassolFri 30 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Corinthians 36%, the draw 30% and Mirassol 33%, so Corinthians winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.52–0.03: Corinthians created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 62%, came in. Picks published: Under 1.5 at 3.40 — lost; Draw at 3.95 — lost.

Coritiba 2–0 VitoriaSat 31 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Coritiba 40%, the draw 25% and Vitoria 35%, so Coritiba winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.30–0.53: Coritiba created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 58%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.66 goals a game over 329 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.