Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo

13th1–41st

23:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vasco DA Gama		Flamengo
15	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	4
14	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	1
587	Passes	481
56%	Possession %	44%
1.24	xG	1.66

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Flamengo 54%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.94 – 1.69

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Vasco DA Gama -0.5

3.55Bet365 · fair 3.34 · qualifies at 3.44+ · 0.62u

Why this price?

Back Vasco DA Gama -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.55 with Bet365 — Vasco DA Gama must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 20% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.34. The offered 3.55 implies only 28%, so the price is 6.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.62 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Vasco DA Gama 0.94, Flamengo 1.69.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.0%	1.37	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.3%	1.99	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.7%	2.01	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+4.2
Match result	Vasco DA Gama	20.5%	4.89	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-2.6
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.95	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.0
Match result	Flamengo	54.3%	1.84	2.05 William Hill	48.8%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.4%	1.34	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.6%	3.90	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+2.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.9%	2.05	1.87 Betano	53.5%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.96	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.0%	3.70	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Flamengo favoured against Vasco DA Gama

Our model makes Vasco DA Gama 20% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Flamengo at 54%. The goal projection is 0.94 for Vasco DA Gama against 1.69 for Flamengo — a substantial edge to Flamengo on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 12%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama		Flamengo
33	Played	34
11-8-14	W-D-L	23-7-4
1.24	Pts / game	2.24
1.30	Goals for / game	2.09
1.52	Goals against / game	0.85
61%	Over 2.5	65%
64%	BTTS	53%
12%	Clean sheets	41%
30%	Failed to score	6%
8-3-6	Home record	13-3-1
3-5-8	Away record	10-4-3
W1	Streak	W5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vasco DA Gama · Flamengo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	17.3
4.7	Shots on target	8.0
5.5	Corners	7.1
1.00	Cards	2.49
14.5	Fouls	11.1
58	Possession %	57
1.12	xG	2.30
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	11.3
3.5	Shots on target	3.7
4.8	Corners	3.7
2.37	Cards	3.00
12.0	Fouls	13.7
42	Possession %	43
0.88	xG	0.84
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vasco DA Gama	Metric	Flamengo
0.80	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.91	Expected goals (xG)	1.76 (better)
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
13.60 (better)	Total shots	13.20
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.80
55.2	Possession %	56.6 (better)
495	Passes	511 (better)
	Tackles
12.80 (better)	Fouls	13.60
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.67
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.33	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Vasco DA Gama wins: 0
Draws: 2
Flamengo wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5