RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5WWLDW8th3–0Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5LLWLL20th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-sc
23
Shots
9
11
Shots on target
3
7
Corners
4
11
Fouls
6
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
522
Passes
374
58%
Possession %
42%
2.59
xG
0.79
64%
21%
15%
1 · RB BragantinoXChapecoense-sc · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
52%
Model pick
RB Bragantino 64%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.90
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Chapecoense-sc
14.9%
6.72
11.00 Betfair
9.1%
+5.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.25
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.8%
5.05
8.00 BetVictor
12.5%
+7.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.1%
1.75
1.48 Bet365
67.6%
-10.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.9%
2.33
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+13.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.7%
2.88
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.3%
1.53
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
+15.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.4%
1.91
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
+1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.6%
2.10
2.30 William Hill
43.5%
+4.1
Match result
RB Bragantino
64.0%
1.56
1.32 Betano
75.8%
-11.7
Match result
Draw
21.1%
4.74
6.50 BetVictor
15.4%
+5.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
RB Bragantino favoured against Chapecoense-sc
Our model makes RB Bragantino 64% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 21% and Chapecoense-sc at 15%. The goal projection is 2.08 for RB Bragantino against 0.90 for Chapecoense-sc — a commanding edge to RB Bragantino on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. RB Bragantino is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 11%
1-0 10%
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
3-0 8%
This season
Season records for RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
RB Bragantino
Metric
Chapecoense-sc
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.98 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.88
—
Big chances *
—
7.40 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
21.40 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.20 (better)
Corners
4.50
48.4 (better)
Possession %
44.5
416
Passes
424 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.00 (better)
Fouls
14.25
0.60 (better)
Offsides
0.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
1.75
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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RB Bragantino v 
Chapecoense-sc