Bahia v Sao Paulo

6th3–210th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bahia		Sao Paulo
13	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	6
7	Corners	11
12	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	3
430	Passes	496
47%	Possession %	53%
1.13	xG	0.89

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Bahia 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.01

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Bahia -0.5

1.98Bet365 · fair 1.85 · qualifies at 1.90+ · 1.84u

Why this price?

Back Bahia -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Bet365 — Bahia must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.85. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 7.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.84 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bahia 1.18, Sao Paulo 1.01.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 1.5

3.40Bet365 · fair 3.20 · qualifies at 3.32+ · 0.67u

Why this price?

Back under 1.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 1 goal or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 31%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.20. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 6.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bahia 1.18, Sao Paulo 1.01.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.3%	2.68	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-12.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.7%	1.60	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	+16.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.8%	5.62	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.2%	1.22	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+15.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.6%	2.24	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-14.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.4%	1.80	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	+10.9
Match result	Bahia	39.1%	2.56	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-9.7
Match result	Draw	30.4%	3.29	3.80 Betano	26.3%	+4.1
Match result	Sao Paulo	30.5%	3.28	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.9%	1.54	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-10.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.1%	2.85	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+12.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bahia favoured against Sao Paulo

Our model makes Bahia 39% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 30% and Sao Paulo at 30%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Bahia against 1.01 for Sao Paulo — a slight edge to Bahia on expected output. A combined 2.19 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 11%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Bahia and Sao Paulo
Bahia		Sao Paulo
33	Played	34
14-11-8	W-D-L	12-8-14
1.61	Pts / game	1.29
1.45	Goals for / game	1.15
1.27	Goals against / game	1.15
52%	Over 2.5	38%
64%	BTTS	56%
27%	Clean sheets	24%
15%	Failed to score	24%
8-6-3	Home record	10-4-3
6-5-5	Away record	2-4-11
W1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bahia · Sao Paulo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	16.6
2.5	Shots on target	4.7
5.2	Corners	7.9
2.33	Cards	2.57
14.2	Fouls	14.1
47	Possession %	52
1.68	xG	1.37
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	15.0
8.5	Shots on target	4.1
9.0	Corners	5.3
2.70	Cards	2.90
11.3	Fouls	13.0
54	Possession %	48
2.03	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bahia	Metric	Sao Paulo
0.80	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.61	Expected goals (xG)	1.63 (better)
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
12.40	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	6.80 (better)
52.2 (better)	Possession %	48.8
487 (better)	Passes	442
	Tackles
13.60 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.40	Offsides	1.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bahia wins: 1
Draws: 1
Sao Paulo wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Bahia v Sao Paulo3–22026-10-29
Sao Paulo v Bahia2–22026-05-03
Sao Paulo v Bahia2–02025-10-26

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	+34	70	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	+6	57	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	+6	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	-13	38	Vitoria won 1 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	-15	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5