Coritiba v Vitoria

12th2–016th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Coritiba		Vitoria
20	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	1
7	Corners	5
20	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
403	Passes	435
49%	Possession %	51%
2.30	xG	0.53

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Coritiba 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Coritiba	39.9%	2.50	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-2.1
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.95	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-3.7
Match result	Vitoria	34.8%	2.88	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.9%	1.24	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+5.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.1%	5.23	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.72	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+7.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.0%	2.38	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-11.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.6%	2.81	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.4%	1.55	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-10.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.1%	1.64	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	+4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.9%	2.57	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-9.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Coritiba v Vitoria: too close to call

Our model makes Coritiba 40% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Vitoria at 35%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Coritiba against 1.45 for Vitoria — a slight edge to Coritiba on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Coritiba and Vitoria
Coritiba		Vitoria
34	Played	34
11-9-14	W-D-L	10-8-16
1.24	Pts / game	1.12
1.18	Goals for / game	1.03
1.50	Goals against / game	1.50
47%	Over 2.5	41%
47%	BTTS	41%
21%	Clean sheets	32%
35%	Failed to score	32%
6-5-6	Home record	10-2-5
5-4-8	Away record	0-6-11
L1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Coritiba · Vitoria

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	12.7
3.0	Shots on target	4.7
4.8	Corners	3.7
2.17	Cards	1.70
13.8	Fouls	11.3
41	Possession %	47
1.20	xG	0.96
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.5	Shots	16.0
6.3	Shots on target	4.7
8.3	Corners	5.8
1.20	Cards	2.67
13.3	Fouls	16.3
59	Possession %	53
1.26	xG	1.58
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Coritiba	Metric	Vitoria
0.80	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
0.90	Expected goals (xG)	1.29 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
12.20	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.80
42.6 (better)	Possession %	39.0
346	Passes	359 (better)
	Tackles
11.60 (better)	Fouls	12.40
1.20 (better)	Offsides	3.33
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Coritiba wins: 1
Draws: 0
Vitoria wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Coritiba v Vitoria2–02026-10-31
Vitoria v Coritiba4–12026-05-02

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5