Santos v Palmeiras

9th0–02nd

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Santos		Palmeiras
16	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
1	Corners	3
8	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
489	Passes	494
55%	Possession %	45%
1.64	xG	1.87

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Palmeiras 51%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.93

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Santos -0.5

3.00Betano · fair 2.70 · qualifies at 2.78+ · 1.40u

Why this price?

Back Santos -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Betano — Santos must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 26% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.70. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.40 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Santos 1.33, Palmeiras 1.93.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

2.07Betano · fair 1.86 · qualifies at 1.94+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 2.07 with Betano — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 63% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.86. The offered 2.07 implies only 48%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Santos 1.33, Palmeiras 1.93.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Santos	25.8%	3.87	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-2.7
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.33	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-4.3
Match result	Palmeiras	51.1%	1.96	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	+11.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.2%	1.19	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+9.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.8%	6.31	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-9.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.3%	1.58	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+12.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.7%	2.72	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-12.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.1%	2.43	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+11.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.9%	1.70	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-12.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.4%	1.58	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.6%	2.73	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-8.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Palmeiras favoured against Santos

Our model makes Santos 26% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 23% and Palmeiras at 51%. The goal projection is 1.33 for Santos against 1.93 for Palmeiras — a substantial edge to Palmeiras on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 7%; 0-1 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Santos and Palmeiras
Santos		Palmeiras
34	Played	34
12-11-11	W-D-L	21-10-3
1.38	Pts / game	2.15
1.47	Goals for / game	1.82
1.44	Goals against / game	0.68
65%	Over 2.5	47%
74%	BTTS	53%
21%	Clean sheets	47%
12%	Failed to score	15%
6-7-4	Home record	13-3-1
6-4-7	Away record	8-7-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Santos · Palmeiras

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	20.1
5.3	Shots on target	7.6
4.9	Corners	6.0
3.45	Cards	2.45
11.7	Fouls	11.9
51	Possession %	52
1.77	xG	2.71
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.1	Shots	13.0
4.7	Shots on target	3.7
7.6	Corners	5.3
2.60	Cards	3.43
15.9	Fouls	12.4
49	Possession %	48
1.44	xG	0.88
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Santos	Metric	Palmeiras
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
1.43	Expected goals (xG)	1.68 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	7.40 (better)
12.60	Total shots	18.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	4.80 (better)
46.6	Possession %	46.8 (better)
487 (better)	Passes	424
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	12.60 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.80	Yellow cards	2.60 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Santos wins: 1
Draws: 2
Palmeiras wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.25
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 25%

Santos v Palmeiras0–02026-10-28
Palmeiras v Santos1–12026-05-02
Santos v Palmeiras1–02025-11-16
Palmeiras v Santos2–02025-11-07

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	-13	38	Vitoria won 1 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5