Gremio v Atletico Paranaense

18th2–05th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gremio		Atletico Paranaense
19	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	8
13	Fouls	17
4	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	0
229	Passes	543
30%	Possession %	70%
1.47	xG	1.37

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Atletico Paranaense 43%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.52

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Atletico Paranaense

3.10William Hill · fair 2.79 · qualifies at 2.87+ · 1.33u

Why this price?

Back Atletico Paranaense to win at 3.10 with William Hill.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.79. The offered 3.10 implies only 32%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.33 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gremio 1.27, Atletico Paranaense 1.52.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

2.25Betano · fair 2.12 · qualifies at 2.20+ · 1.24u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 2.25 with Betano — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.12. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 6.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.24 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gremio 1.27, Atletico Paranaense 1.52.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gremio	31.1%	3.21	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-6.3
Match result	Draw	26.3%	3.81	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-2.7
Match result	Atletico Paranaense	42.6%	2.35	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	+11.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.4%	1.29	1.30 Betano	76.9%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.6%	4.42	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-3.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.9%	1.89	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+5.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.1%	2.12	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-2.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.7%	3.26	4.05 Betano	24.7%	+6.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.3%	1.44	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.8%	1.76	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.2%	2.32	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-1.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atletico Paranaense favoured against Gremio

Our model makes Gremio 31% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Atletico Paranaense at 43%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Gremio against 1.52 for Atletico Paranaense — a clear edge to Atletico Paranaense on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Gremio and Atletico Paranaense
Gremio		Atletico Paranaense
34	Played	34
9-10-15	W-D-L	15-9-10
1.09	Pts / game	1.59
1.12	Goals for / game	1.50
1.38	Goals against / game	1.26
44%	Over 2.5	50%
59%	BTTS	59%
24%	Clean sheets	24%
29%	Failed to score	24%
8-5-4	Home record	9-5-3
1-5-11	Away record	6-4-7
L1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gremio · Atletico Paranaense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	16.9
4.7	Shots on target	5.4
5.7	Corners	8.4
2.91	Cards	2.45
14.1	Fouls	12.9
44	Possession %	56
1.44	xG	0.99
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.0	Shots	12.7
6.3	Shots on target	4.9
7.4	Corners	3.3
2.57	Cards	2.64
14.4	Fouls	12.9
56	Possession %	44
1.47	xG	1.20
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gremio	Metric	Atletico Paranaense
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.80
1.53 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.46
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
13.20	Total shots	18.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	8.40 (better)
47.4	Possession %	51.6 (better)
426	Passes	448 (better)
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	13.20 (better)
1.20	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gremio wins: 1
Draws: 1
Atletico Paranaense wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Gremio v Atletico Paranaense2–02026-10-30
Atletico Paranaense v Gremio0–02026-05-02

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5