Atletico-MG v 
Cruzeiro
Match statistics
| Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 515 | Passes | 423 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 1.65 | xG | 2.60 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Atletico-MG 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.72 – 1.38
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Atletico-MG -0.25
Why this price?
Back Atletico-MG -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.08 with Bet365 — Atletico-MG must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.91. The offered 2.08 implies only 48%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Atletico-MG 1.72, Cruzeiro 1.38.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.11. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 9.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.98 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Atletico-MG 1.72, Cruzeiro 1.38.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico-MG | 45.1% | 2.21 | 2.70 Dafabet | 37.0% | +8.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3.60 BetVictor | 27.8% | -3.2 |
| Match result | Cruzeiro | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.85 Betano | 35.1% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.26 Betano | 79.4% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.9% | 5.59 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | -4.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | +5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.27 Betano | 44.1% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | +5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | -3.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.65 Betfair | 60.6% | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | -2.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atletico-MG favoured against Cruzeiro
Our model makes Atletico-MG 45% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cruzeiro at 30%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Atletico-MG against 1.38 for Cruzeiro — a clear edge to Atletico-MG on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 1-0 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 14-8-12 | W-D-L | 18-6-10 |
| 1.47 | Pts / game | 1.76 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.62 |
| 1.18 | Goals against / game | 1.41 |
| 47% | Over 2.5 | 65% |
| 47% | BTTS | 68% |
| 24% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 12% |
| 10-5-2 | Home record | 10-4-3 |
| 4-3-10 | Away record | 8-2-7 |
| L3 | Streak | W4 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico-MG · Cruzeiro
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.4 | Shots | 17.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 7.4 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.77 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 51 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.17 | xG | 2.29 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 19.4 | Shots | 16.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 6.9 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 1.77 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 14.7 |
| 49 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.79 | xG | 1.49 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Atletico-MG | Metric | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.42 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.68 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.80 | Shots on target | 7.40 (better) |
| 15.60 | Total shots | 16.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Corners | 5.60 |
| 52.2 | Possession % | 57.4 (better) |
| 511 (better) | Passes | 504 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.20 (better) | Fouls | 14.60 |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.40 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Atletico-MG wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Cruzeiro wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro0–12026-10-29
- Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG1–32026-05-03
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro1–12025-10-16
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |