Flamengo v Atletico-MG

1st3–27th

23:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Flamengo		Atletico-MG
29	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	4
14	Corners	0
9	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
804	Passes	328
72%	Possession %	28%
2.94	xG	1.01

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Flamengo 58%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.73 – 0.84

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.27Marathonbet · fair 2.17 · qualifies at 2.26+ · 0.88u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.27 with Marathonbet — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.17. The offered 2.27 implies only 44%, so the price is 4.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.88 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Flamengo 1.73, Atletico-MG 0.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Flamengo	57.9%	1.73	1.35 Dafabet	74.1%	-16.1
Match result	Draw	24.6%	4.06	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	+9.0
Match result	Atletico-MG	17.4%	5.74	14.00 Betano	7.1%	+10.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.3%	1.36	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.7%	3.75	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.5%	2.11	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-12.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.5%	1.90	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+11.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.8%	3.87	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-14.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.2%	1.35	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+11.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.4%	2.11	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.6%	1.90	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Flamengo favoured against Atletico-MG

Our model makes Flamengo 58% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Atletico-MG at 17%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Flamengo against 0.84 for Atletico-MG — a substantial edge to Flamengo on expected output. A combined 2.57 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Flamengo and Atletico-MG
Flamengo		Atletico-MG
34	Played	34
23-7-4	W-D-L	14-8-12
2.24	Pts / game	1.47
2.09	Goals for / game	1.29
0.85	Goals against / game	1.18
65%	Over 2.5	47%
53%	BTTS	47%
41%	Clean sheets	24%
6%	Failed to score	32%
13-3-1	Home record	10-5-2
10-4-3	Away record	4-3-10
W5	Streak	L3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Flamengo · Atletico-MG

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	14.4
8.0	Shots on target	5.1
7.1	Corners	6.0
2.49	Cards	1.77
11.1	Fouls	13.0
57	Possession %	51
2.30	xG	1.17
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.3	Shots	19.4
3.7	Shots on target	5.9
3.7	Corners	6.9
3.00	Cards	2.29
13.7	Fouls	11.6
43	Possession %	49
0.84	xG	1.79
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Flamengo	Metric	Atletico-MG
1.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
0.60	Goals conceded	0.60
1.74 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
6.60	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
13.20	Total shots	16.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.80	Corners	7.20 (better)
56.6 (better)	Possession %	54.0
511	Passes	513 (better)
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	12.20 (better)
2.67	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.25 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Flamengo wins: 3
Draws: 1
Atletico-MG wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Flamengo v Atletico-MG3–22026-10-26
Atletico-MG v Flamengo0–42026-04-26
Atletico-MG v Flamengo1–12025-11-26
Flamengo v Atletico-MG1–02025-07-27

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5