Palmeiras v Remo

2nd6–119th

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Palmeiras		Remo
19	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	3
11	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	4
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
546	Passes	393
58%	Possession %	42%
4.78	xG	0.32

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Palmeiras 69%
Likely score: 2-0 14%
Expected goals: 2.07 – 0.69

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Palmeiras	69.2%	1.45	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-10.8
Match result	Draw	20.0%	5.00	6.60 Betano	15.2%	+4.9
Match result	Remo	10.8%	9.28	16.00 Dafabet	6.3%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.7%	1.30	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-6.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.3%	4.29	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.2%	1.92	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-11.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.8%	2.09	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.0%	3.33	2.42 Betano	41.3%	-11.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.0%	1.43	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.0%	2.27	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.0%	1.79	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	-1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Palmeiras favoured against Remo

Our model makes Palmeiras 69% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 20% and Remo at 11%. The goal projection is 2.07 for Palmeiras against 0.69 for Remo — a commanding edge to Palmeiras on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Palmeiras is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 14%; 1-0 13%; 1-1 9%; 3-0 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Palmeiras and Remo
Palmeiras		Remo
34	Played	34
21-10-3	W-D-L	6-11-17
2.15	Pts / game	0.85
1.82	Goals for / game	1.09
0.68	Goals against / game	1.68
47%	Over 2.5	50%
53%	BTTS	62%
47%	Clean sheets	12%
15%	Failed to score	32%
13-3-1	Home record	4-7-6
8-7-2	Away record	2-4-11
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Palmeiras · Remo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.1	Shots	14.7
7.6	Shots on target	4.8
6.0	Corners	6.8
2.45	Cards	2.33
11.9	Fouls	13.2
52	Possession %	47
2.71	xG	0.61
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	15.2
3.7	Shots on target	5.2
5.3	Corners	5.5
3.43	Cards	1.33
12.4	Fouls	14.8
48	Possession %	53
0.88	xG	2.03
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Palmeiras	Metric	Remo
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.36 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.84
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
12.20	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	8.00 (better)
45.2	Possession %	50.4 (better)
444	Passes	474 (better)
	Tackles
11.40 (better)	Fouls	12.20
1.80	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.60 (better)
0.25 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Palmeiras wins: 1
Draws: 1
Remo wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Palmeiras v Remo6–12026-11-05
Remo v Palmeiras1–12026-05-10

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5