Predicted Edge

Flamengo v Gremio

Flamengo won 5 of the last 51st3–1Gremio won 2 of the last 518th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Flamengo Gremio
17Shots7
8Shots on target4
7Corners4
7Fouls6
0Yellow cards2
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
633Passes551
54%Possession %46%
2.43xG0.31
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
44%
Model pick
Flamengo 69%
Likely score
2-0 14%
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.69

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 3 of 5

Under 2.5

2.57Betano · fair 2.41 · qualifies at 2.51+ · 1.04u
Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.57 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.41. The offered 2.57 implies only 39%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.04 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Flamengo 2.09, Gremio 0.69.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultFlamengo69.4%1.441.22 William Hill82.0%-12.6
Match resultDraw19.9%5.039.00 Betano11.1%+8.8
Match resultGremio10.7%9.3219.50 Betano5.1%+5.6
Total goalsOver 1.577.0%1.301.17 Bet36585.5%-8.5
Total goalsUnder 1.523.0%4.358.00 Bet36512.5%+10.5
Total goalsOver 2.552.6%1.901.31 Betano76.3%-23.7
Total goalsUnder 2.547.4%2.113.60 Bet36527.8%+19.6
Total goalsOver 3.530.4%3.292.30 Bet36543.5%-13.1
Total goalsUnder 3.569.6%1.442.10 Bet36547.6%+22.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes44.2%2.262.15 Betfair46.5%-2.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No55.8%1.791.91 Bet36552.4%+3.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Flamengo favoured against Gremio

Our model makes Flamengo 69% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 20% and Gremio at 11%. The goal projection is 2.09 for Flamengo against 0.69 for Gremio — a commanding edge to Flamengo on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Flamengo is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-0 14%
1-0 12%
1-1 9%
3-0 9%
2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Flamengo and Gremio
Flamengo Gremio
34Played34
23-7-4W-D-L9-10-15
2.24Pts / game1.09
2.09Goals for / game1.12
0.85Goals against / game1.38
65%Over 2.544%
53%BTTS59%
41%Clean sheets24%
6%Failed to score29%
13-3-1Home record8-5-4
10-4-3Away record1-5-11
W5StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Flamengo · Gremio

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3Shots13.7
8.0Shots on target4.7
7.1Corners5.7
2.49Cards2.91
11.1Fouls14.1
57Possession %44
2.30xG1.44
7 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.3Shots18.0
3.7Shots on target6.3
3.7Corners7.4
3.00Cards2.57
13.7Fouls14.4
43Possession %56
0.84xG1.47
7 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FlamengoMetricGremio
1.40 (better)Goals scored1.00
0.40 (better)Goals conceded1.20
1.72Expected goals (xG)1.80 (better)
Big chances
6.60 (better)Shots on target4.80
17.00 (better)Total shots14.20
Touches in opp. box
8.40 (better)Corners6.00
61.8 (better)Possession %46.2
581 (better)Passes383
Tackles
12.60 (better)Fouls16.00
1.50Offsides1.40 (better)
Throw-ins
2.00 (better)Yellow cards2.60
0.00 (better)Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Flamengo wins
2
Draws
1
Gremio wins
0
Goals / game
2.33
Over 2.5
33%
Both score
67%
Brasileirão Série A table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Flamengo342374+4276Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2Palmeiras3421103+3973Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3Cruzeiro3418610+760Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4Fluminense341699+1357Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5Atletico Paranaense3415910+854Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6Bahia3414119+553Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7Atletico-MG3414812+450Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8RB Bragantino3413813+547RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9Santos34121111+147Santos won 1 of the last 5
10Sao Paulo3412814044Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11Botafogo3411914-742Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12Coritiba3411914-1142Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13Vasco DA Gama3311814-741Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14Mirassol34101014-940Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15Internacional3491114-438Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16Vitoria3410816-1638Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17Corinthians3491015-637Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18Gremio3491015-937Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19Remo3461117-2029Remo won 1 of the last 5
20Chapecoense-sc334920-3521Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5