Botafogo v 
Atletico-MG
Match statistics
| Botafogo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 302 | Passes | 646 |
| 32% | Possession % | 68% |
| 1.60 | xG | 0.34 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Atletico-MG 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.34 – 1.48
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Atletico-MG
Why this price?
Back Atletico-MG to win at 3.10 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 35%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.90. The offered 3.10 implies only 32%, so the price is 7.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.84 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Botafogo 1.34, Atletico-MG 1.48.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Botafogo | 33.7% | 2.96 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | -26.2 |
| Match result | Atletico-MG | 40.0% | 2.50 | 6.10 Betano | 16.4% | +23.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.72 Betano | 58.1% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.4% | 3.18 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +2.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.25 BetVictor | 44.4% | -2.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.2% | 3.81 | 4.30 Betano | 23.3% | +3.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Botafogo v Atletico-MG: too close to call
Our model makes Botafogo 34% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Atletico-MG at 40%. The goal projection is 1.34 for Botafogo against 1.48 for Atletico-MG — a slight edge to Atletico-MG on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Botafogo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 11-9-14 | W-D-L | 14-8-12 |
| 1.24 | Pts / game | 1.47 |
| 1.35 | Goals for / game | 1.29 |
| 1.56 | Goals against / game | 1.18 |
| 62% | Over 2.5 | 47% |
| 65% | BTTS | 47% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 32% |
| 7-6-4 | Home record | 10-5-2 |
| 4-3-10 | Away record | 4-3-10 |
| W1 | Streak | L3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Botafogo · Atletico-MG
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.33 | Cards | 1.77 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.29 | xG | 1.17 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.3 | Shots | 19.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 7.0 | Corners | 6.9 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.29 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 49 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.03 | xG | 1.79 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Botafogo | Metric | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 | Shots on target | 5.80 (better) |
| 14.40 (better) | Total shots | 13.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 | Corners | 5.80 |
| 52.2 (better) | Possession % | 46.4 |
| 473 | Passes | 479 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.60 (better) | Fouls | 12.00 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.60 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Botafogo wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Atletico-MG wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.33
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- Botafogo v Atletico-MG1–02026-11-05
- Atletico-MG v Botafogo1–12026-05-10
- Botafogo v Atletico-MG1–02025-09-20
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |