Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama

5th1–313th

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Atletico Paranaense		Vasco DA Gama
15	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	0
11	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
520	Passes	497
51%	Possession %	49%
0.39	xG	0.71

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Atletico Paranaense 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.26

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Atletico Paranaense -0.25

1.80BetVictor · fair 1.74 · qualifies at 1.79+ · 1.06u

Why this price?

Back Atletico Paranaense -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.80 with BetVictor — Atletico Paranaense must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.74. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 3.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.06 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.69, Vasco DA Gama 1.26.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Atletico Paranaense	47.0%	2.13	2.30 Betano	43.5%	+3.5
Match result	Draw	25.0%	3.99	3.60 Betano	27.8%	-2.7
Match result	Vasco DA Gama	28.0%	3.57	3.30 Betano	30.3%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.8%	1.25	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.2%	4.96	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-4.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.5%	1.77	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.5%	2.30	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.1%	2.93	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.9%	1.52	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.9%	1.70	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.1%	2.43	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-3.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atletico Paranaense favoured against Vasco DA Gama

Our model makes Atletico Paranaense 47% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Vasco DA Gama at 28%. The goal projection is 1.69 for Atletico Paranaense against 1.26 for Vasco DA Gama — a clear edge to Atletico Paranaense on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense		Vasco DA Gama
34	Played	33
15-9-10	W-D-L	11-8-14
1.59	Pts / game	1.24
1.50	Goals for / game	1.30
1.26	Goals against / game	1.52
50%	Over 2.5	61%
59%	BTTS	64%
24%	Clean sheets	12%
24%	Failed to score	30%
9-5-3	Home record	8-3-6
6-4-7	Away record	3-5-8
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico Paranaense · Vasco DA Gama

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.9	Shots	15.7
5.4	Shots on target	4.7
8.4	Corners	5.5
2.45	Cards	1.00
12.9	Fouls	14.5
56	Possession %	58
0.99	xG	1.12
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	11.7
4.9	Shots on target	3.5
3.3	Corners	4.8
2.64	Cards	2.37
12.9	Fouls	12.0
44	Possession %	42
1.20	xG	0.88
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atletico Paranaense	Metric	Vasco DA Gama
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.23 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.03
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
17.60 (better)	Total shots	15.20
	Touches in opp. box
8.80 (better)	Corners	3.80
53.8	Possession %	57.0 (better)
468	Passes	513 (better)
	Tackles
12.40 (better)	Fouls	12.80
1.20	Offsides	1.20
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Atletico Paranaense wins: 0
Draws: 0
Vasco DA Gama wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama1–32026-11-04
Vasco DA Gama v Atletico Paranaense1–02026-05-10

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5