Turkey
Süper Lig predictions
Every Süper Lig match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Süper Lig page.
15 matches in the next 14 days, 9 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Amed, 67% against Konyaspor at home; the most evenly balanced game is Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş (Trabzonspor 39%, draw 26%, Beşiktaş 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Çorum FK v Rizespor, at 3.74.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Süper Lig1Prediction
Tomorrow
Sun 18 Oct
Süper Lig3Prediction
Mon 19 Oct
Fri 23 Oct
Süper Lig1PredictionSat 24 Oct
Süper Lig3PredictionSun 25 Oct
Süper Lig2Prediction3 more member picks on these Süper Lig matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Match by match
Çorum FK v RizesporFri 16 Oct, 18:00
Our model makes Çorum FK 53%, the draw 21% and Rizespor 26%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Çorum FK are 8th on 10 points from 7; Rizespor are 10th on 10 points from 7. Çorum FK have won three of their last five; Rizespor have won two of their last five.
Erzurumspor FK v EyüpsporSat 17 Oct, 11:30
Our model makes Erzurumspor FK 45%, the draw 28% and Eyüpspor 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Erzurumspor FK are 14th on 8 points from 7; Eyüpspor are 18th on 3 points from 7. Erzurumspor FK have won two of their last five; Eyüpspor have won one of their last five.
Amed v KonyasporSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Amed 67%, the draw 18% and Konyaspor 15%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Amed to win at 67%. Amed are 3rd on 14 points from 7; Konyaspor are 16th on 5 points from 7. Amed are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Konyaspor have won one of their last five.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. v GalatasaraySat 17 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Gençlerbirliği S.K. 21%, the draw 23% and Galatasaray 56%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Galatasaray to win at 56%. Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 13th on 8 points from 7; Galatasaray are 1st on 16 points from 7. Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Galatasaray have won four of their last five. Galatasaray have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Fenerbahçe v AlanyasporSat 17 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Fenerbahçe 63%, the draw 21% and Alanyaspor 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Fenerbahçe to win at 63%. Fenerbahçe are 4th on 13 points from 7; Alanyaspor are 6th on 12 points from 7. Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five; Alanyaspor have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Kasımpaşa v SamsunsporSun 18 Oct, 11:30
Our model makes Kasımpaşa 42%, the draw 27% and Samsunspor 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Kasımpaşa to win at 42%. Kasımpaşa are 9th on 10 points from 7; Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 7. Kasımpaşa have won one of their last five; Samsunspor have lost all of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Kocaelispor v GöztepeSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Kocaelispor 41%, the draw 30% and Göztepe 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.25 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Kocaelispor are 7th on 12 points from 7; Göztepe are 15th on 6 points from 7. Kocaelispor have won three of their last five; Göztepe have won one of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Başakşehir v Gaziantep FKSun 18 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Başakşehir 60%, the draw 22% and Gaziantep FK 18%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Başakşehir to win at 60%. Başakşehir are 11th on 8 points from 7; Gaziantep FK are 12th on 8 points from 7. Başakşehir have won one of their last five; Gaziantep FK have won one of their last five. Başakşehir have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Trabzonspor v BeşiktaşMon 19 Oct, 18:00
Our model makes Trabzonspor 39%, the draw 26% and Beşiktaş 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Trabzonspor are 5th on 13 points from 7; Beşiktaş are 2nd on 15 points from 7. Trabzonspor have won three of their last five; Beşiktaş have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
The numbers this season
Süper Lig has averaged 2.94 goals a game over 63 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 44%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 22% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Süper Lig predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Süper Lig predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Süper Lig?
- 44% of matches this season, over 63 played, with 22% drawn and 33% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.94 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 59%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.
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