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Süper Lig predictions: matchweek 8 (16–19 October 2026)
Every Süper Lig match in matchweek 8 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Süper Lig, matchweek 8: nine matches, played across 16–19 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Amed, 67% to beat Konyaspor at home; the most evenly balanced game is Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş (Trabzonspor 39%, draw 26%, Beşiktaş 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Çorum FK v Rizespor, at 3.74; the tightest looks Kocaelispor v Göztepe, at 2.25.
Going into the round, Galatasaray lead on 16 points, one point clear of Beşiktaş, with Amed third on 14. The bottom three are Konyaspor (5), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).
The numbers this season
Süper Lig has averaged 2.94 goals a game over 63 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 44%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 22% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Çorum FK v RizesporFri 16 Oct, 18:00
Our model makes Çorum FK 53%, the draw 21% and Rizespor 26%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Çorum FK are 8th on 10 points from 7; Rizespor are 10th on 10 points from 7. Çorum FK have won three of their last five; Rizespor have won two of their last five.
Erzurumspor FK v EyüpsporSat 17 Oct, 11:30
Our model makes Erzurumspor FK 45%, the draw 28% and Eyüpspor 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Erzurumspor FK are 14th on 8 points from 7; Eyüpspor are 18th on 3 points from 7. Erzurumspor FK have won two of their last five; Eyüpspor have won one of their last five.
Amed v KonyasporSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Amed 67%, the draw 18% and Konyaspor 15%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Amed to win at 67%. Amed are 3rd on 14 points from 7; Konyaspor are 16th on 5 points from 7. Amed are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Konyaspor have won one of their last five.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. v GalatasaraySat 17 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Gençlerbirliği S.K. 21%, the draw 23% and Galatasaray 56%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Galatasaray to win at 56%. Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 13th on 8 points from 7; Galatasaray are 1st on 16 points from 7. Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Galatasaray have won four of their last five. Galatasaray have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Fenerbahçe v AlanyasporSat 17 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Fenerbahçe 63%, the draw 21% and Alanyaspor 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Fenerbahçe to win at 63%. Fenerbahçe are 4th on 13 points from 7; Alanyaspor are 6th on 12 points from 7. Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five; Alanyaspor have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Kasımpaşa v SamsunsporSun 18 Oct, 11:30
Our model makes Kasımpaşa 42%, the draw 27% and Samsunspor 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Kasımpaşa to win at 42%. Kasımpaşa are 9th on 10 points from 7; Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 7. Kasımpaşa have won one of their last five; Samsunspor have lost all of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Kocaelispor v GöztepeSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Kocaelispor 41%, the draw 30% and Göztepe 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.25 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Kocaelispor are 7th on 12 points from 7; Göztepe are 15th on 6 points from 7. Kocaelispor have won three of their last five; Göztepe have won one of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Başakşehir v Gaziantep FKSun 18 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Başakşehir 60%, the draw 22% and Gaziantep FK 18%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Başakşehir to win at 60%. Başakşehir are 11th on 8 points from 7; Gaziantep FK are 12th on 8 points from 7. Başakşehir have won one of their last five; Gaziantep FK have won one of their last five. Başakşehir have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Trabzonspor v BeşiktaşMon 19 Oct, 18:00
Our model makes Trabzonspor 39%, the draw 26% and Beşiktaş 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Trabzonspor are 5th on 13 points from 7; Beşiktaş are 2nd on 15 points from 7. Trabzonspor have won three of their last five; Beşiktaş have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published three picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Süper Lig9Prediction
3 more member picks on these matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.