How are Swiss Super League predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are Swiss Super League predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

How often do home teams win in Swiss Super League?

44% of matches this season, over 72 played, with 18% drawn and 38% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.76 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 75%.

Switzerland

Swiss Super League predictions

Every Swiss Super League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Swiss Super League page.

4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is FC Lugano, 58% against FC ST. Gallen away; the most evenly balanced game is Grasshoppers v Lausanne (Grasshoppers 35%, draw 28%, Lausanne 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Thun v FC Basel 1893, at 3.55.

Every match, one prediction

Today

Swiss Super League1Most likely prediction

19:30 UTC

Grasshoppers

Lausanne 1 members

37%Lausanne win

Tomorrow

Swiss Super League3Most likely prediction

13:00 UTC

15:30 UTC

15:30 UTC

1 more member pick on these Swiss Super League matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick

Match by match

Grasshoppers v LausanneSat 7 Nov, 19:30

Our model makes Grasshoppers 35%, the draw 28% and Lausanne 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Lausanne to win at 37%. Grasshoppers are 11th on 10 points from 12; Lausanne are 12th on 6 points from 12. Grasshoppers are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Lausanne have lost all of their last five. Two of the sides' last five meetings were drawn.

FC ST. Gallen v FC LuganoSun 8 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes FC ST. Gallen 21%, the draw 21% and FC Lugano 58%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), 3.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is FC Lugano to win at 58%. FC ST. Gallen are 5th on 19 points from 12; FC Lugano are 1st on 34 points from 12. FC ST. Gallen have won three of their last five; FC Lugano have won all of their last five. FC ST. Gallen have won three of the sides' last five meetings.

FC Thun v FC Basel 1893Sun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes FC Thun 44%, the draw 23% and FC Basel 1893 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 87%. FC Thun are 9th on 13 points from 12; FC Basel 1893 are 7th on 14 points from 12. FC Thun have won two of their last five; FC Basel 1893 have won one of their last five. FC Basel 1893 have won three of the sides' last five meetings.

Servette FC v FC ZurichSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Servette FC 54%, the draw 22% and FC Zurich 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Servette FC to win at 54%. Servette FC are 6th on 16 points from 12; FC Zurich are 4th on 20 points from 12. Servette FC have won three of their last five; FC Zurich are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last five meetings split 2–1–2 between Servette FC wins, draws and FC Zurich wins.

The numbers this season

Swiss Super League has averaged 3.76 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 75% of them and both sides scoring in 69%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 38%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Swiss Super League predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Swiss Super League predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Swiss Super League?: 44% of matches this season, over 72 played, with 18% drawn and 38% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.76 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 75%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.