FC Thun v 
FC Basel 1893
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 47%
- Both score
- 69%
- Model pick
- FC Thun 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.90 – 1.65
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Thun favoured against FC Basel 1893
Our model makes FC Thun 44% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 23% and FC Basel 1893 at 34%. The goal projection is 1.90 for FC Thun against 1.65 for FC Basel 1893 — a slight edge to FC Thun on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 5%
This season
| FC Thun | FC Basel 1893 | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 4-1-7 | W-D-L | 4-2-6 |
| 1.08 | Pts / game | 1.17 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 2.83 | Goals against / game | 1.83 |
| 83% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 75% | BTTS | 67% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 0-1-4 | Home record | 1-1-4 |
| 4-0-3 | Away record | 3-1-2 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Thun · FC Basel 1893
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.8 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.8 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 2.75 |
| 16.8 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 45 | Possession % | 60 |
| 2.11 | xG | 1.06 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 15.5 | Shots | 17.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.8 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.25 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 15.5 |
| 55 | Possession % | 40 |
| 1.56 | xG | 1.80 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| FC Thun | Metric | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.60 |
| 1.20 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.09 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.50 (better) | Shots on target | 2.00 |
| 12.25 | Total shots | 13.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.75 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 42.5 | Possession % | 59.0 (better) |
| 323 | Passes | 486 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 19.25 | Fouls | 15.67 (better) |
| 2.33 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.33 |
| 0.67 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FC Thun wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- FC Basel 1893 wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 4.20
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- FC Basel 1893 v FC Thun4–22026-08-09
- FC Basel 1893 v FC Thun3–12026-05-02
- FC Thun v FC Basel 18933–12026-04-18
- FC Basel 1893 v FC Thun1–22026-02-01
- FC Thun v FC Basel 18931–32025-09-13
Swiss Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | +26 | 34 | FC Lugano won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +15 | 25 | BSC Young Boys won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 23 | FC Sion won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 20 | FC Zurich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | FC ST. Gallen | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 | FC ST. Gallen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 16 | Servette FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 | FC Basel 1893 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 13 | FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 | FC Thun won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 | Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 10 | FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 7 | Lausanne won 0 of the last 5 |