Italy
Serie B predictions
Every Serie B match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Serie B page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Benevento, 51% against Avellino at home; the most evenly balanced game is Vicenza Virtus v Cremonese (Vicenza Virtus 37%, draw 28%, Cremonese 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Benevento v Avellino, at 2.75.
Every match, one prediction
Match by match
Benevento v AvellinoSat 7 Nov, 18:30
Our model makes Benevento 51%, the draw 25% and Avellino 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Benevento to win at 51%. Benevento are 7th on 15 points from 10; Avellino are 6th on 15 points from 10. Benevento have won two of their last five; Avellino have won two of their last five.
Virtus Entella v ModenaSun 8 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes Virtus Entella 31%, the draw 28% and Modena 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.46 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Virtus Entella are 15th on 10 points from 10; Modena are 3rd on 20 points from 10. Virtus Entella have won one of their last five; Modena have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Virtus Entella wins, draws and Modena wins.
Carrarese v SampdoriaSun 8 Nov, 16:15
Our model makes Carrarese 47%, the draw 29% and Sampdoria 24%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (14%), 2.23 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 56%. Carrarese are 16th on 10 points from 10; Sampdoria are 18th on 8 points from 10. Carrarese have won three of their last five; Sampdoria have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Carrarese wins, draws and Sampdoria wins.
Vicenza Virtus v CremoneseSun 8 Nov, 18:30
Our model makes Vicenza Virtus 37%, the draw 28% and Cremonese 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Vicenza Virtus to win at 37%. Vicenza Virtus are 19th on 6 points from 9; Cremonese are 13th on 12 points from 10. Vicenza Virtus have won one of their last five; Cremonese have won two of their last five.
The numbers this season
Serie B has averaged 2.60 goals a game over 101 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 49% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 31% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Serie B predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Serie B predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Serie B?
- 38% of matches this season, over 101 played, with 31% drawn and 32% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.60 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 49%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.