Finland
Veikkausliiga predictions
Every Veikkausliiga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Veikkausliiga page.
3 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is HJK Helsinki, 61% against AC Oulu at home; the most evenly balanced game is KuPS v Inter Turku (KuPS 37%, draw 32%, Inter Turku 31%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is HJK Helsinki v AC Oulu, at 3.41.
Every match, one prediction
1 more member pick on these Veikkausliiga matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick
Match by match
HJK Helsinki v AC OuluSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes HJK Helsinki 61%, the draw 20% and AC Oulu 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. HJK Helsinki are 1st on 58 points from 31; AC Oulu are 4th on 47 points from 31. HJK Helsinki are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); AC Oulu have won three of their last five. HJK Helsinki have won three of the sides' last four meetings.
KuPS v Inter TurkuSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes KuPS 37%, the draw 32% and Inter Turku 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 67%. KuPS are 3rd on 53 points from 31; Inter Turku are 2nd on 58 points from 31. KuPS have won one of their last five; Inter Turku have won three of their last five. KuPS have won three of the sides' last six meetings.
Gnistan v VPSSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes Gnistan 47%, the draw 26% and VPS 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Gnistan to win at 47%. Gnistan are 5th on 43 points from 31; VPS are 6th on 40 points from 31. Gnistan are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); VPS have won one of their last five. Three of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.
The numbers this season
Veikkausliiga has averaged 2.56 goals a game over 176 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 44% of them and both sides scoring in 48%. Home sides have won 45% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Veikkausliiga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Veikkausliiga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Veikkausliiga?
- 45% of matches this season, over 176 played, with 27% drawn and 28% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.56 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 44%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.