Germany
Bundesliga predictions
Every Bundesliga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Bundesliga page.
18 matches in the next 14 days, 9 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Bayern München, 75% against RB Leipzig at home; the most evenly balanced game is Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 (Werder Bremen 38%, draw 25%, SC Paderborn 07 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Bayern München v RB Leipzig, at 4.64.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Bundesliga1Prediction
Tomorrow
Sun 18 Oct
Fri 23 Oct
Sat 24 Oct
Bundesliga6PredictionSun 25 Oct
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Match by match
Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC KölnFri 16 Oct, 19:30
Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, the draw 19% and 1. FC Köln 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%. The headline call is both teams to score at 76%. Eintracht Frankfurt are 14th on 5 points from 5; 1. FC Köln are 10th on 7 points from 5. Eintracht Frankfurt have won one of their last five; 1. FC Köln have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Union Berlin v Borussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Union Berlin 19%, the draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 61%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), 3.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Borussia Dortmund to win at 61%. Union Berlin are 16th on 4 points from 5; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 13 points from 5. Union Berlin have won one of their last five; Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Borussia Dortmund have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Hamburger SV v VfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Hamburger SV 21%, the draw 22% and VfB Stuttgart 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is VfB Stuttgart to win at 57%. Hamburger SV are 12th on 6 points from 5; VfB Stuttgart are 11th on 6 points from 5. Hamburger SV have won two of their last five; VfB Stuttgart have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Hamburger SV wins, draws and VfB Stuttgart wins.
FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05Sat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes FC Schalke 04 34%, the draw 28% and FSV Mainz 05 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is FSV Mainz 05 to win at 38%. FC Schalke 04 are 13th on 5 points from 5; FSV Mainz 05 are 8th on 7 points from 5. FC Schalke 04 have won one of their last five; FSV Mainz 05 have won two of their last five.
Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07Sat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Werder Bremen 38%, the draw 25% and SC Paderborn 07 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Werder Bremen are 7th on 8 points from 5; SC Paderborn 07 are 15th on 4 points from 5. Werder Bremen have won two of their last five; SC Paderborn 07 have won one of their last five.
SV Elversberg v FC AugsburgSat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes SV Elversberg 48%, the draw 23% and FC Augsburg 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. SV Elversberg are 9th on 7 points from 5; FC Augsburg are 6th on 8 points from 5. SV Elversberg have won two of their last five; FC Augsburg have won two of their last five.
Bayern München v RB LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 17:30
Our model makes Bayern München 75%, the draw 14% and RB Leipzig 12%. The likeliest score is 3-1 (8%), 4.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is Bayern München to win at 75%. Bayern München are 3rd on 11 points from 5; RB Leipzig are 5th on 9 points from 5. Bayern München are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); RB Leipzig have won three of their last five. Bayern München have won three of the sides' last three meetings.
Bayer Leverkusen v SC FreiburgSun 18 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen 47%, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5; SC Freiburg are 1st on 13 points from 5. Bayer Leverkusen have won three of their last five; SC Freiburg are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 HoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 16:30
Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach 38%, the draw 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 0 points from 5; 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points from 5. Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost all of their last five; 1899 Hoffenheim have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Borussia Mönchengladbach wins, draws and 1899 Hoffenheim wins.
The numbers this season
Bundesliga has averaged 3.82 goals a game over 45 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 78% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Bundesliga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Bundesliga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Bundesliga?
- 51% of matches this season, over 45 played, with 20% drawn and 29% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.82 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 78%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.