Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim

18th1–29th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		1899 Hoffenheim
9	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	8
3	Corners	6
13	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
401	Passes	446
48%	Possession %	52%
0.55	xG	1.86

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 40%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.82 – 1.88

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3.48Marathonbet · fair 3.12 · qualifies at 3.21+ · 1.16u

Why this price?

Back Borussia Mönchengladbach to win at 3.48 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 28%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.12. The offered 3.48 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.16 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.82, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Borussia Mönchengladbach	37.5%	2.67	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.42	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-1.2
Match result	1899 Hoffenheim	39.9%	2.51	2.12 Dafabet	47.2%	-7.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.9%	1.13	1.13 Betano	88.5%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.1%	8.99	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.4%	1.40	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.6%	3.50	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.6%	1.98	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.4%	2.02	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	71.5%	1.40	1.36 William Hill	73.5%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.5%	3.51	3.25 BetVictor	30.8%	-2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim: too close to call

Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach 38% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 40%. The goal projection is 1.82 for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.88 for 1899 Hoffenheim — almost nothing to 1899 Hoffenheim on expected output. A combined 3.70 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach		1899 Hoffenheim
9	Played	9
1-1-7	W-D-L	4-0-5
0.44	Pts / game	1.33
1.33	Goals for / game	1.78
2.78	Goals against / game	1.89
89%	Over 2.5	89%
67%	BTTS	78%
11%	Clean sheets	11%
33%	Failed to score	11%
0-1-3	Home record	3-0-2
1-0-4	Away record	1-0-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1899 Hoffenheim

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	17.5
5.5	Shots on target	4.8
4.5	Corners	5.5
3.37	Cards	1.33
13.7	Fouls	12.2
43	Possession %	55
1.86	xG	1.88
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	14.5
6.8	Shots on target	3.8
5.7	Corners	4.5
2.33	Cards	2.00
9.8	Fouls	10.2
57	Possession %	45
1.84	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Borussia Mönchengladbach	Metric	1899 Hoffenheim
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.80	Goals conceded	2.40 (better)
1.93 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.63
	Big chances
4.33	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
17.00	Total shots	19.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00	Corners	7.00
45.7	Possession %	60.0 (better)
376	Passes	518 (better)
	Tackles
15.33	Fouls	15.20 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
4.33	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.33 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Borussia Mönchengladbach wins: 1
Draws: 0
1899 Hoffenheim wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim1–22026-10-18
Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim4–02026-05-16
1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Mönchengladbach5–12026-01-14

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5