SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg

7th4–314th

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SV Elversberg		FC Augsburg
19	Shots	29
8	Shots on target	8
4	Corners	12
16	Fouls	14
4	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	2
325	Passes	468
40%	Possession %	60%
3.78	xG	3.92

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: SV Elversberg 48%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.96 – 1.49

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

FC Augsburg +0.25

2.37Betano · fair 2.12 · qualifies at 2.18+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back FC Augsburg +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.37 with Betano — FC Augsburg starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.12. The offered 2.37 implies only 42%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: SV Elversberg 1.96, FC Augsburg 1.49.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	SV Elversberg	48.4%	2.06	2.75 William Hill	36.4%	+12.1
Match result	Draw	22.8%	4.39	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.2
Match result	FC Augsburg	28.8%	3.47	2.72 Betano	36.8%	-8.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.3%	1.16	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.7%	7.32	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.0%	1.49	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.0%	3.03	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.2%	2.21	2.15 Betano	46.5%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.8%	1.83	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.0%	1.49	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.0%	3.03	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	-0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SV Elversberg favoured against FC Augsburg

Our model makes SV Elversberg 48% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and FC Augsburg at 29%. The goal projection is 1.96 for SV Elversberg against 1.49 for FC Augsburg — a clear edge to SV Elversberg on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg		FC Augsburg
9	Played	9
4-1-4	W-D-L	2-3-4
1.44	Pts / game	1.00
1.89	Goals for / game	2.22
2.00	Goals against / game	2.22
78%	Over 2.5	89%
67%	BTTS	89%
11%	Clean sheets	11%
33%	Failed to score	0%
3-0-1	Home record	1-3-1
1-1-3	Away record	1-0-3
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SV Elversberg · FC Augsburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	17.2
4.2	Shots on target	5.8
4.7	Corners	4.5
1.50	Cards	1.87
12.0	Fouls	9.8
51	Possession %	48
1.41	xG	2.34
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.2	Shots	17.0
4.8	Shots on target	6.5
7.3	Corners	3.3
2.37	Cards	2.37
14.0	Fouls	9.7
49	Possession %	52
2.25	xG	2.65
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SV Elversberg	Metric	FC Augsburg
1.80	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.38	Expected goals (xG)	1.77 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	7.25 (better)
10.25	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	4.75 (better)
42.3 (better)	Possession %	39.8
379 (better)	Passes	372
	Tackles
11.50	Fouls	8.75 (better)
1.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

SV Elversberg wins: 1
Draws: 0
FC Augsburg wins: 0
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg4–32026-10-17

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5