Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07

6th2–213th

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Werder Bremen		SC Paderborn 07
18	Shots	11
11	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	3
11	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	0
628	Passes	399
61%	Possession %	39%
3.21	xG	1.15

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Werder Bremen 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.49

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Werder Bremen -0.75

2.00Bet365 · fair 1.80 · qualifies at 1.85+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Werder Bremen -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.00 with Bet365 — Werder Bremen must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 72%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.80. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Werder Bremen 1.52, SC Paderborn 07 1.49.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Werder Bremen	38.0%	2.63	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-16.9
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	+1.5
Match result	SC Paderborn 07	36.6%	2.73	4.20 Betano	23.8%	+12.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.8%	1.24	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.2%	5.22	6.00 BetVictor	16.7%	+2.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.73	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.0%	2.38	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.6%	2.81	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.4%	1.55	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.1%	1.64	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.9%	2.57	2.50 BetVictor	40.0%	-1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07: too close to call

Our model makes Werder Bremen 38% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and SC Paderborn 07 at 37%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Werder Bremen against 1.49 for SC Paderborn 07 — almost nothing to Werder Bremen on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07
Werder Bremen		SC Paderborn 07
9	Played	9
4-3-2	W-D-L	2-4-3
1.67	Pts / game	1.11
1.89	Goals for / game	0.89
1.67	Goals against / game	1.22
67%	Over 2.5	44%
78%	BTTS	33%
11%	Clean sheets	33%
11%	Failed to score	56%
3-1-0	Home record	2-1-2
1-2-2	Away record	0-3-1
L1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Werder Bremen · SC Paderborn 07

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	14.7
7.2	Shots on target	4.7
4.8	Corners	5.2
1.83	Cards	1.17
9.2	Fouls	10.8
49	Possession %	49
1.92	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	15.8
5.3	Shots on target	4.8
4.7	Corners	4.7
1.17	Cards	1.37
9.8	Fouls	12.3
51	Possession %	51
1.46	xG	1.80
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Werder Bremen	Metric	SC Paderborn 07
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
2.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.64 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.67
	Big chances
6.75 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
14.25 (better)	Total shots	11.75
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.00 (better)
44.0	Possession %	46.8 (better)
449 (better)	Passes	446
	Tackles
11.25	Fouls	9.75 (better)
2.75	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Werder Bremen wins: 0
Draws: 1
SC Paderborn 07 wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 072–22026-10-17

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5