Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund

16th0–02nd

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Union Berlin		Borussia Dortmund
11	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	5
13	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	1
344	Passes	572
38%	Possession %	62%
0.80	xG	1.09

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Borussia Dortmund 61%
Likely score: 1-2 10%
Expected goals: 1.20 – 2.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Union Berlin	18.6%	5.38	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+0.4
Match result	Draw	20.3%	4.94	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	-0.8
Match result	Borussia Dortmund	61.2%	1.64	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.5%	1.16	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.5%	7.41	6.00 BetVictor	16.7%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.3%	1.49	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.7%	3.06	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.7%	2.19	2.25 Betano	44.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.3%	1.84	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.0%	1.59	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.0%	2.70	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Borussia Dortmund favoured against Union Berlin

Our model makes Union Berlin 19% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 20% and Borussia Dortmund at 61%. The goal projection is 1.20 for Union Berlin against 2.27 for Borussia Dortmund — a commanding edge to Borussia Dortmund on expected output. A combined 3.47 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Borussia Dortmund is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 10%; 1-1 9%; 0-2 8%; 1-3 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin		Borussia Dortmund
9	Played	9
1-4-4	W-D-L	6-3-0
0.78	Pts / game	2.33
0.78	Goals for / game	1.78
2.33	Goals against / game	0.78
44%	Over 2.5	56%
44%	BTTS	44%
22%	Clean sheets	56%
44%	Failed to score	11%
1-3-1	Home record	4-1-0
0-1-3	Away record	2-2-0
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Union Berlin · Borussia Dortmund

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.0	Shots	15.5
1.8	Shots on target	5.0
3.0	Corners	6.2
3.03	Cards	2.33
12.2	Fouls	10.7
37	Possession %	55
0.98	xG	1.51
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.8	Shots	13.5
5.8	Shots on target	4.0
5.5	Corners	4.3
1.87	Cards	1.83
10.7	Fouls	11.0
63	Possession %	45
1.42	xG	1.75
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Union Berlin	Metric	Borussia Dortmund
1.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
3.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.13	Expected goals (xG)	2.09 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
11.75	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.00 (better)
45.8	Possession %	52.6 (better)
372	Passes	517 (better)
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	11.40
2.50	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Union Berlin wins: 0
Draws: 1
Borussia Dortmund wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 0%

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0–02026-10-17
Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0–32026-01-24
Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin3–02025-08-31

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5