Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

5th2–13rd

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		SC Freiburg
12	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	3
12	Fouls	5
0	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	0
491	Passes	507
49%	Possession %	51%
1.64	xG	1.21

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Bayer Leverkusen 47%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.0%	6.68	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.5%	1.55	1.45 BetVictor	69.0%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.5%	2.82	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.5%	2.35	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.5%	1.74	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.5%	1.53	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.5%	2.90	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-3.5
Match result	Bayer Leverkusen	46.5%	2.15	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-10.6
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.23	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+0.6
Match result	SC Freiburg	29.8%	3.35	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.0%	1.18	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-1.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bayer Leverkusen favoured against SC Freiburg

Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen 47% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and SC Freiburg at 30%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.46 for SC Freiburg — a clear edge to Bayer Leverkusen on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen		SC Freiburg
9	Played	9
5-1-3	W-D-L	6-1-2
1.78	Pts / game	2.11
2.22	Goals for / game	2.22
1.89	Goals against / game	1.11
89%	Over 2.5	78%
67%	BTTS	67%
22%	Clean sheets	33%
11%	Failed to score	0%
3-0-1	Home record	4-0-1
2-1-2	Away record	2-1-1
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bayer Leverkusen · SC Freiburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	14.8
5.8	Shots on target	4.7
6.2	Corners	4.5
2.67	Cards	2.20
10.5	Fouls	9.5
56	Possession %	52
1.57	xG	1.52
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5	Shots	10.5
4.8	Shots on target	3.8
3.8	Corners	2.8
3.37	Cards	1.00
10.5	Fouls	12.0
44	Possession %	48
2.39	xG	1.37
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bayer Leverkusen	Metric	SC Freiburg
2.80	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
2.33	Expected goals (xG)	2.33
	Big chances
7.20 (better)	Shots on target	6.50
20.40 (better)	Total shots	19.00
	Touches in opp. box
8.60 (better)	Corners	5.25
57.4 (better)	Possession %	53.3
556 (better)	Passes	464
	Tackles
12.60	Fouls	10.25 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bayer Leverkusen wins: 2
Draws: 1
SC Freiburg wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–12026-10-18
SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen3–32026-03-07
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–02025-10-26

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5