Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln

10th1–015th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		1. FC Köln
15	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	3
8	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
449	Passes	360
56%	Possession %	44%
1.84	xG	0.82

Over 1.5: 93%
Over 2.5: 80%
Over 3.5: 62%
Both score: 76%

Model pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 57%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.59 – 1.70

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Eintracht Frankfurt -0.25

1.75Betano · fair 1.58 · qualifies at 1.63+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Eintracht Frankfurt -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Betano — Eintracht Frankfurt must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 63% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.58. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.59, 1. FC Köln 1.70.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Eintracht Frankfurt	56.6%	1.77	1.99 Dafabet	50.3%	+6.3
Match result	Draw	19.0%	5.26	4.33 BetVictor	23.1%	-4.1
Match result	1. FC Köln	24.4%	4.10	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	93.0%	1.07	1.12 Betano	89.3%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	7.0%	14.37	8.50 BetVictor	11.8%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	80.1%	1.25	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	19.9%	5.03	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-9.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	62.1%	1.61	2.10 Betano	47.6%	+14.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	37.9%	2.64	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-12.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	75.9%	1.32	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	24.1%	4.15	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-6.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eintracht Frankfurt favoured against 1. FC Köln

Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt 57% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 19% and 1. FC Köln at 24%. The goal projection is 2.59 for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.70 for 1. FC Köln — a substantial edge to Eintracht Frankfurt on expected output. A combined 4.29 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-1 6%; 3-2 6%

This season

Season records for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt		1. FC Köln
9	Played	9
3-3-3	W-D-L	2-3-4
1.33	Pts / game	1.00
1.67	Goals for / game	1.11
2.22	Goals against / game	1.56
78%	Over 2.5	56%
67%	BTTS	78%
11%	Clean sheets	11%
22%	Failed to score	22%
2-1-1	Home record	2-2-1
1-2-2	Away record	0-1-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eintracht Frankfurt · 1. FC Köln

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	14.3
5.8	Shots on target	4.7
4.8	Corners	4.7
2.17	Cards	2.83
11.3	Fouls	11.5
49	Possession %	52
1.61	xG	1.25
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	11.8
5.2	Shots on target	5.3
5.3	Corners	4.8
1.67	Cards	3.17
12.5	Fouls	12.0
51	Possession %	48
1.99	xG	1.27
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Eintracht Frankfurt	Metric	1. FC Köln
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.98	Expected goals (xG)	2.86 (better)
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	5.50 (better)
13.75	Total shots	17.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.75	Corners	6.75 (better)
49.5 (better)	Possession %	46.3
421	Passes	438 (better)
	Tackles
10.25 (better)	Fouls	10.50
2.25	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Eintracht Frankfurt wins: 2
Draws: 1
1. FC Köln wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln1–02026-10-16
Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln2–22026-04-05
1. FC Köln v Eintracht Frankfurt3–42025-11-22

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5