Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart

11th1–08th

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hamburger SV		VfB Stuttgart
14	Shots	24
3	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	9
12	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	0
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
313	Passes	627
34%	Possession %	66%
1.50	xG	2.28

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: VfB Stuttgart 57%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.19 – 2.07

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Both teams to score — No

3.20Betfair · fair 2.90 · qualifies at 3.05+ · 1.16u

Why this price?

Back both teams to score — no at 3.20 with Betfair — at least one side fails to score.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.90. The offered 3.20 implies only 31%, so the price is 10.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.16 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Hamburger SV 1.19, VfB Stuttgart 2.07.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Hamburger SV	21.0%	4.75	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	-2.8
Match result	Draw	22.0%	4.55	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	-1.8
Match result	VfB Stuttgart	57.0%	1.75	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.1%	1.19	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.9%	6.29	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	+2.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.8%	2.72	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.0%	2.44	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-9.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.0%	1.70	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.3%	1.63	1.40 William Hill	71.4%	-10.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.7%	2.58	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	+5.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

VfB Stuttgart favoured against Hamburger SV

Our model makes Hamburger SV 21% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and VfB Stuttgart at 57%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Hamburger SV against 2.07 for VfB Stuttgart — a substantial edge to VfB Stuttgart on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-3 7%

This season

Season records for Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV		VfB Stuttgart
9	Played	9
4-0-5	W-D-L	4-0-5
1.33	Pts / game	1.33
1.11	Goals for / game	1.67
2.22	Goals against / game	1.67
67%	Over 2.5	56%
44%	BTTS	56%
11%	Clean sheets	22%
44%	Failed to score	22%
3-0-1	Home record	2-0-2
1-0-4	Away record	2-0-3
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	16.2
4.5	Shots on target	5.8
4.2	Corners	5.5
2.00	Cards	1.33
11.8	Fouls	9.5
44	Possession %	54
1.35	xG	1.99
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.2	Shots	19.0
6.0	Shots on target	5.0
6.0	Corners	5.8
1.73	Cards	3.33
12.0	Fouls	11.2
56	Possession %	47
1.82	xG	1.91
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hamburger SV	Metric	VfB Stuttgart
0.80	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
0.73	Expected goals (xG)	1.52 (better)
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	4.33 (better)
9.50	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	5.67 (better)
45.0	Possession %	58.3 (better)
364	Passes	560 (better)
	Tackles
14.50	Fouls	10.00 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	0.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hamburger SV wins: 2
Draws: 0
VfB Stuttgart wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart1–02026-10-17
VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV4–02026-04-12
Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart2–12025-11-30

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5