FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5LLDLL17th0–1FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5LLLWL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
9
Shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
4
Corners
1
12
Fouls
20
0
Yellow cards
2
—
Red cards
—
3
Offsides
7
392
Passes
462
47%
Possession %
53%
0.43
xG
1.94
34%
28%
38%
1 · FC Schalke 04XFSV Mainz 05 · 2
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
54%
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 38%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.35
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Schalke 04
34.2%
2.92
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+0.9
Match result
Draw
27.5%
3.63
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
+1.2
Match result
FSV Mainz 05
38.3%
2.61
2.30 Bet365
43.5%
-5.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.35
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-8.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.8%
3.87
5.00 BetVictor
20.0%
+5.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
48.5%
2.06
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-13.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
51.5%
1.94
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+9.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
26.7%
3.75
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-11.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
73.3%
1.36
1.55 Betano
64.5%
+8.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.8%
1.86
1.57 William Hill
63.7%
-9.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.2%
2.16
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+7.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05: too close to call
Our model makes FC Schalke 04 34% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and FSV Mainz 05 at 38%. The goal projection is 1.26 for FC Schalke 04 against 1.35 for FSV Mainz 05 — almost nothing to FSV Mainz 05 on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Schalke 04
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
1.80
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
1.25
Expected goals (xG)
2.24 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.00
Shots on target
6.25 (better)
12.00
Total shots
18.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
6.00 (better)
30.7
Possession %
51.0 (better)
272
Passes
443 (better)
—
Tackles
—
8.33 (better)
Fouls
13.00
1.67
Offsides
1.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.33 (better)
Yellow cards
2.25
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Schalke 04 v 
FSV Mainz 05