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UEFA Nations League predictions: League C, round 6 (15 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League C, round 6 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 7 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League C, round 6: four matches, played on 15 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Finland, 78% to beat San Marino at home; the most evenly balanced game is Cyprus v Montenegro (Cyprus 35%, draw 29%, Montenegro 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Finland v San Marino, at 3.50; the tightest looks Belarus v Albania, at 2.01.

Match by match

Cyprus v MontenegroSun 15 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Cyprus 35%, the draw 29% and Montenegro 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Cyprus have won two of their last four; Montenegro are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).

Latvia v ArmeniaSun 15 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Latvia 31%, the draw 31% and Armenia 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 63%. Latvia are without a win in four (one draw, three defeats); Armenia have won one of their last four.

Belarus v AlbaniaSun 15 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Belarus 36%, the draw 32% and Albania 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 67%. Belarus have won two of their last four; Albania have won three of their last four.

Finland v San MarinoSun 15 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Finland 78%, the draw 14% and San Marino 8%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Finland to win at 78%. Finland have won two of their last four; San Marino have lost all of their last four.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.