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UEFA Nations League predictions: League C, round 5 (12–13 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League C, round 5 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League C, round 5: eight matches, played across 12–13 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Belarus, 77% to beat San Marino away; the most evenly balanced game is Albania v Finland (Albania 30%, draw 31%, Finland 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is San Marino v Belarus, at 3.31; the tightest looks Luxembourg v Estonia, at 1.80.

Match by match

Armenia v CyprusThu 12 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Armenia 26%, the draw 29% and Cyprus 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Armenia have won one of their last four; Cyprus have won two of their last four.

Albania v FinlandThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Albania 30%, the draw 31% and Finland 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 64%. Albania have won three of their last four; Finland have won two of their last four.

Montenegro v LatviaThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Montenegro 47%, the draw 28% and Latvia 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.34 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Montenegro to win at 47%. Montenegro are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Latvia are without a win in four (one draw, three defeats).

San Marino v BelarusThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes San Marino 8%, the draw 15% and Belarus 77%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (12%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Belarus to win at 77%. San Marino have lost all of their last four; Belarus have won two of their last four.

Moldova v KazakhstanFri 13 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Moldova 27%, the draw 26% and Kazakhstan 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Kazakhstan to win at 47%. Moldova have won one of their last four; Kazakhstan are without a win in four (two draws, two defeats).

Bulgaria v IcelandFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Bulgaria 19%, the draw 26% and Iceland 55%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Iceland to win at 55%. Bulgaria have won one of their last four; Iceland are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

Luxembourg v EstoniaFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Luxembourg 25%, the draw 34% and Estonia 42%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (17%), 1.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 73%. Luxembourg have won one of their last four; Estonia are unbeaten in four (one win, three draws).

Slovakia v Faroe IslandsFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Slovakia 43%, the draw 29% and Faroe Islands 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Slovakia are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Faroe Islands have drawn all of their last four.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.

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The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.

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