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UEFA Nations League predictions: League B, round 5 (13–14 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League B, round 5 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League B, round 5: eight matches, played across 13–14 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Poland, 57% to beat Romania away; the most evenly balanced game is Sweden v Bosnia & Herzegovina (Sweden 34%, draw 28%, Bosnia & Herzegovina 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Romania v Poland, at 2.77; the tightest looks Georgia v Hungary, at 1.79.

Match by match

Scotland v FYR MacedoniaFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Scotland 55%, the draw 28% and FYR Macedonia 17%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (16%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is Scotland to win at 55%. Scotland have won one of their last four; FYR Macedonia have lost all of their last four.

Slovenia v SwitzerlandFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Slovenia 17%, the draw 26% and Switzerland 56%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (15%), 2.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is Switzerland to win at 56%. Slovenia have won two of their last four; Switzerland have won all of their last four. Switzerland have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Kosovo v IsraelSat 14 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Kosovo 43%, the draw 30% and Israel 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Kosovo have won one of their last four; Israel are without a win in four (two draws, two defeats).

Georgia v HungarySat 14 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Georgia 25%, the draw 34% and Hungary 41%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (17%), 1.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 73%. Georgia are without a win in four (two draws, two defeats); Hungary have won two of their last four.

Austria v Rep. Of IrelandSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Austria 38%, the draw 28% and Rep. Of Ireland 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Austria to win at 38%. Austria are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Rep. Of Ireland have won one of their last four.

Northern Ireland v UkraineSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Northern Ireland 40%, the draw 33% and Ukraine 27%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (16%), 1.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 71%. Northern Ireland are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Ukraine have won one of their last four.

Romania v PolandSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Romania 19%, the draw 24% and Poland 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Poland to win at 57%. Romania have lost all of their last four; Poland have won one of their last four.

Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Sweden 34%, the draw 28% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Bosnia & Herzegovina to win at 38%. Sweden are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Bosnia & Herzegovina are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published nine picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.

The fixtures now

The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.

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