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UEFA Nations League predictions: League D, round 5 (13 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League D, round 5 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League D, round 5: two matches, played on 13 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Azerbaijan, 50% to beat Liechtenstein away; the most evenly balanced game is Andorra v Gibraltar (Andorra 21%, draw 32%, Gibraltar 47%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Liechtenstein v Azerbaijan, at 1.85; the tightest looks Andorra v Gibraltar, at 1.84.

Match by match

Andorra v GibraltarFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Andorra 21%, the draw 32% and Gibraltar 47%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (18%), 1.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 72%. Andorra are without a win in three (one draw, two defeats).

Liechtenstein v AzerbaijanFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Liechtenstein 18%, the draw 31% and Azerbaijan 50%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (19%), 1.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 33%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 72%. Azerbaijan are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws).

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.

The fixtures now

The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.

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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.