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UEFA Nations League predictions: League A, round 5 (12–14 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League A, round 5 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League A, round 5: eight matches, played across 12–14 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Spain, 69% to beat Czechia away; the most evenly balanced game is Italy v France (Italy 31%, draw 25%, France 44%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is England v Croatia, at 3.96; the tightest looks Netherlands v Greece, at 2.36.

Match by match

Türkiye v BelgiumThu 12 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Türkiye 17%, the draw 22% and Belgium 62%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (10%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Belgium to win at 62%. Türkiye have lost all of their last four; Belgium have won two of their last four.

Czechia v SpainThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Czechia 10%, the draw 21% and Spain 69%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (14%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is Spain to win at 69%. Czechia have lost all of their last four; Spain have won all of their last four.

England v CroatiaThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes England 52%, the draw 21% and Croatia 27%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 56%. England have won three of their last four; Croatia have won one of their last four. England have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Italy v FranceThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Italy 31%, the draw 25% and France 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Italy have won two of their last four; France are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).

Netherlands v GreeceFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Netherlands 44%, the draw 29% and Greece 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Netherlands are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Greece are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

Serbia v GermanyFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Serbia 12%, the draw 20% and Germany 68%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (13%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Germany to win at 68%. Serbia have lost all of their last four; Germany have won one of their last four.

Norway v WalesSat 14 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Norway 51%, the draw 26% and Wales 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Norway to win at 51%. Norway have won one of their last four; Wales have won one of their last four.

Portugal v DenmarkSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Portugal 48%, the draw 26% and Denmark 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Portugal to win at 48%. Portugal have won all of their last four; Denmark have won two of their last four.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published nine picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.