Italy v France

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: France 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.62

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

France favoured against Italy

Our model makes Italy 31% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 25% and France at 44%. The goal projection is 1.34 for Italy against 1.62 for France — a clear edge to France on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Italy and France
Italy		France
4	Played	4
2-1-1	W-D-L	3-1-0
1.75	Pts / game	2.50
2.00	Goals for / game	1.75
1.25	Goals against / game	0.50
50%	Over 2.5	25%
75%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-1	Home record	1-1-0
1-1-0	Away record	2-0-0
W1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Italy · France

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	17.8
5.5	Shots on target	6.8
3.3	Corners	6.0
2.00	Cards	1.25
13.5	Fouls	9.3
46	Possession %	65
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.5	Shots	10.8
6.0	Shots on target	2.3
7.3	Corners	3.3
2.50	Cards	3.00
10.3	Fouls	11.0
55	Possession %	35
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Italy	Metric	France
1.80	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.89 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.70
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	7.20 (better)
14.80	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.20	Corners	5.40 (better)
44.8	Possession %	61.2 (better)
465	Passes	638 (better)
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	10.20 (better)
2.60	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Italy wins: 0
Draws: 1
France wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

France v Italy1–12026-10-02