France v Italy

1–1

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
France		Italy
18	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	4
9	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	4
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
726	Passes	391
65%	Possession %	35%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: France 37%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.20

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.4%	2.25	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-21.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.6%	1.80	2.75 Betano	36.4%	+19.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.2%	4.31	2.30 Betano	43.5%	-20.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.8%	1.30	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+19.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.7%	1.97	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-9.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.3%	2.03	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+3.9
Match result	France	36.8%	2.72	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-29.9
Match result	Draw	28.9%	3.46	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+9.8
Match result	Italy	34.3%	2.91	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+20.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.0%	1.41	1.17 Betano	85.5%	-14.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.0%	3.45	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+12.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

France v Italy: too close to call

Our model makes France 37% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Italy at 34%. The goal projection is 1.25 for France against 1.20 for Italy — almost nothing to France on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 10%; 0-1 10%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for France and Italy
France		Italy
4	Played	4
3-1-0	W-D-L	2-1-1
2.50	Pts / game	1.75
1.75	Goals for / game	2.00
0.50	Goals against / game	1.25
25%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	75%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	25%
1-1-0	Home record	1-0-1
2-0-0	Away record	1-1-0
W1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. France · Italy

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	16.0
6.8	Shots on target	5.5
6.0	Corners	3.3
1.25	Cards	2.00
9.3	Fouls	13.5
65	Possession %	46
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	16.5
2.3	Shots on target	6.0
3.3	Corners	7.3
3.00	Cards	2.50
11.0	Fouls	10.3
35	Possession %	55
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
France	Metric	Italy
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.60	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
2.08	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
5.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
15.60 (better)	Total shots	14.80
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	6.00
56.6 (better)	Possession %	49.6
525 (better)	Passes	463
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	11.00 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

France wins: 0
Draws: 1
Italy wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

France v Italy1–12026-10-02