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UEFA Nations League predictions

Every UEFA Nations League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the UEFA Nations League page.

52 matches in the next 14 days, 30 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Finland, 78% against San Marino at home; the most evenly balanced game is Cyprus v Montenegro (Cyprus 35%, draw 29%, Montenegro 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is England v Croatia, at 3.96.

Every match, one prediction

Thu 12 Nov

UEFA Nations League8Most likely prediction

Fri 13 Nov

UEFA Nations League10Most likely prediction

Sat 14 Nov

UEFA Nations League8Most likely prediction

Sun 15 Nov

UEFA Nations League8Most likely prediction

Mon 16 Nov

UEFA Nations League10Most likely prediction

Tue 17 Nov

UEFA Nations League8Most likely prediction

28 more member picks on these UEFA Nations League matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick

Match by match

Türkiye v BelgiumThu 12 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Türkiye 17%, the draw 22% and Belgium 62%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (10%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Belgium to win at 62%. Türkiye have lost all of their last four; Belgium have won two of their last four.

Armenia v CyprusThu 12 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Armenia 26%, the draw 29% and Cyprus 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Armenia have won one of their last four; Cyprus have won two of their last four.

San Marino v BelarusThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes San Marino 8%, the draw 15% and Belarus 77%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (12%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Belarus to win at 77%. San Marino have lost all of their last four; Belarus have won two of their last four.

Italy v FranceThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Italy 31%, the draw 25% and France 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Italy have won two of their last four; France are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).

England v CroatiaThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes England 52%, the draw 21% and Croatia 27%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 56%. England have won three of their last four; Croatia have won one of their last four. England have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Czechia v SpainThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Czechia 10%, the draw 21% and Spain 69%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (14%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is Spain to win at 69%. Czechia have lost all of their last four; Spain have won all of their last four.

Montenegro v LatviaThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Montenegro 47%, the draw 28% and Latvia 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.34 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Montenegro to win at 47%. Montenegro are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Latvia are without a win in four (one draw, three defeats).

Albania v FinlandThu 12 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Albania 30%, the draw 31% and Finland 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 64%. Albania have won three of their last four; Finland have won two of their last four.

Moldova v KazakhstanFri 13 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Moldova 27%, the draw 26% and Kazakhstan 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Kazakhstan to win at 47%. Moldova have won one of their last four; Kazakhstan are without a win in four (two draws, two defeats).

Andorra v GibraltarFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Andorra 21%, the draw 32% and Gibraltar 47%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (18%), 1.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 72%. Andorra are without a win in three (one draw, two defeats).

Netherlands v GreeceFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Netherlands 44%, the draw 29% and Greece 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Netherlands are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Greece are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

Scotland v FYR MacedoniaFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Scotland 55%, the draw 28% and FYR Macedonia 17%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (16%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is Scotland to win at 55%. Scotland have won one of their last four; FYR Macedonia have lost all of their last four.

Liechtenstein v AzerbaijanFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Liechtenstein 18%, the draw 31% and Azerbaijan 50%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (19%), 1.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 33%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 72%. Azerbaijan are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws).

Bulgaria v IcelandFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Bulgaria 19%, the draw 26% and Iceland 55%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Iceland to win at 55%. Bulgaria have won one of their last four; Iceland are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

Luxembourg v EstoniaFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Luxembourg 25%, the draw 34% and Estonia 42%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (17%), 1.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 73%. Luxembourg have won one of their last four; Estonia are unbeaten in four (one win, three draws).

Slovenia v SwitzerlandFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Slovenia 17%, the draw 26% and Switzerland 56%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (15%), 2.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is Switzerland to win at 56%. Slovenia have won two of their last four; Switzerland have won all of their last four. Switzerland have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Slovakia v Faroe IslandsFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Slovakia 43%, the draw 29% and Faroe Islands 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Slovakia are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Faroe Islands have drawn all of their last four.

Serbia v GermanyFri 13 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Serbia 12%, the draw 20% and Germany 68%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (13%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Germany to win at 68%. Serbia have lost all of their last four; Germany have won one of their last four.

Kosovo v IsraelSat 14 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Kosovo 43%, the draw 30% and Israel 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Kosovo have won one of their last four; Israel are without a win in four (two draws, two defeats).

Norway v WalesSat 14 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Norway 51%, the draw 26% and Wales 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Norway to win at 51%. Norway have won one of their last four; Wales have won one of their last four.

Georgia v HungarySat 14 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Georgia 25%, the draw 34% and Hungary 41%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (17%), 1.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 73%. Georgia are without a win in four (two draws, two defeats); Hungary have won two of their last four.

Portugal v DenmarkSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Portugal 48%, the draw 26% and Denmark 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Portugal to win at 48%. Portugal have won all of their last four; Denmark have won two of their last four.

Austria v Rep. Of IrelandSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Austria 38%, the draw 28% and Rep. Of Ireland 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Austria to win at 38%. Austria are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Rep. Of Ireland have won one of their last four.

Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Sweden 34%, the draw 28% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Bosnia & Herzegovina to win at 38%. Sweden are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Bosnia & Herzegovina are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

Romania v PolandSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Romania 19%, the draw 24% and Poland 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Poland to win at 57%. Romania have lost all of their last four; Poland have won one of their last four.

Northern Ireland v UkraineSat 14 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Northern Ireland 40%, the draw 33% and Ukraine 27%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (16%), 1.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 71%. Northern Ireland are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Ukraine have won one of their last four.

Latvia v ArmeniaSun 15 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Latvia 31%, the draw 31% and Armenia 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 63%. Latvia are without a win in four (one draw, three defeats); Armenia have won one of their last four.

Cyprus v MontenegroSun 15 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Cyprus 35%, the draw 29% and Montenegro 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Cyprus have won two of their last four; Montenegro are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).

Belarus v AlbaniaSun 15 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Belarus 36%, the draw 32% and Albania 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 67%. Belarus have won two of their last four; Albania have won three of their last four.

Finland v San MarinoSun 15 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Finland 78%, the draw 14% and San Marino 8%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Finland to win at 78%. Finland have won two of their last four; San Marino have lost all of their last four.

About these predictions

How are UEFA Nations League predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are UEFA Nations League predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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