Auxerre v 
Paris FC
Match statistics
| Auxerre | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 390 | Passes | 724 |
| 34% | Possession % | 66% |
| 0.75 | xG | 0.94 |
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Over 3.5
- 29%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Paris FC 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.17 – 1.56
Advised bets
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Auxerre -0.5
Why this price?
Back Auxerre -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — Auxerre must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.08. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.22 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Auxerre 1.17, Paris FC 1.56.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Paris FC favoured against Auxerre
Our model makes Auxerre 28% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Paris FC at 46%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Auxerre against 1.56 for Paris FC — a clear edge to Paris FC on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Auxerre | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 3-1-6 | W-D-L | 6-2-2 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 1.70 |
| 2.40 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 80% | BTTS | 50% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 1-0-4 | Away record | 2-1-2 |
| L2 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Auxerre · Paris FC
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.03 | Cards | 2.83 |
| 18.2 | Fouls | 14.5 |
| 45 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.54 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 8.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 2.7 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 15.5 |
| 55 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.64 | xG | 1.12 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Auxerre | Metric | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.69 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.28 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.80 |
| 12.25 | Total shots | 12.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 52.6 (better) |
| 422 | Passes | 565 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 16.75 | Fouls | 15.80 (better) |
| 2.50 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.20 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Auxerre wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Paris FC wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- Auxerre v Paris FC0–12026-11-07
- Auxerre v Paris FC0–02026-02-08
- Paris FC v Auxerre1–12025-11-29
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 20 | Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 | Paris FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 18 | Lille won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 17 | Lyon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 16 | Rennes won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +7 | 15 | Marseille won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Monaco won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | Nice won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 | Lens won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 13 | Toulouse won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 12 | Stade Brestois 29 won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 | Lorient won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 | Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Auxerre won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 | Angers won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 | Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 | Le Mans won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 | Le Havre won 0 of the last 5 |