Australia
A-League predictions
Every A-League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the A-League page.
2 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Melbourne Victory, 41% against Adelaide United away; the most evenly balanced game is Macarthur v Brisbane Roar (Macarthur 39%, draw 27%, Brisbane Roar 34%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory, at 3.19.
Every match, one prediction
2 more member picks on these A-League matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick
Match by match
Macarthur v Brisbane RoarSun 8 Nov, 04:00
Our model makes Macarthur 39%, the draw 27% and Brisbane Roar 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Macarthur are 6th on 5 points from 3; Brisbane Roar are 8th on 4 points from 2. Macarthur are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Macarthur wins, draws and Brisbane Roar wins.
Adelaide United v Melbourne VictorySun 8 Nov, 06:00
Our model makes Adelaide United 35%, the draw 24% and Melbourne Victory 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Adelaide United are 12th on 0 points from 2; Melbourne Victory are 9th on 2 points from 3. Melbourne Victory are without a win in three (two draws, one defeat). One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.
The numbers this season
A-League has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 21 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 62% of them and both sides scoring in 71%. Home sides have won 57% of matches, 38% have been drawn and away sides have won 5%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are A-League predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are A-League predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in A-League?
- 57% of matches this season, over 21 played, with 38% drawn and 5% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.76 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 62%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.