Adelaide United v 
Melbourne Victory
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 64%
- Model pick
- Melbourne Victory 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.52 – 1.67
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Melbourne Victory favoured against Adelaide United
Our model makes Adelaide United 35% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Melbourne Victory at 41%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Adelaide United against 1.67 for Melbourne Victory — a slight edge to Melbourne Victory on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Adelaide United | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 3 |
| 0-0-2 | W-D-L | 0-2-1 |
| 0.00 | Pts / game | 0.67 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 3.00 | Goals against / game | 1.33 |
| 100% | Over 2.5 | 33% |
| 50% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-0 | Home record | 0-2-0 |
| 0-0-2 | Away record | 0-0-1 |
| L2 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Adelaide United · Melbourne Victory
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.0 | Shots | 8.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 7.7 |
| 59 | Possession % | 51 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 13.5 | Fouls | 8.7 |
| 42 | Possession % | 49 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Adelaide United | Metric | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.56 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.94 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.67 (better) | Shots on target | 3.50 |
| 13.67 | Total shots | 13.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 5.25 (better) |
| 55.3 (better) | Possession % | 54.5 |
| 481 | Passes | 526 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 | Fouls | 8.50 (better) |
| 1.67 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Adelaide United wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Melbourne Victory wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United1–12026-02-27
- Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory2–12026-01-17
- Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United2–12025-12-13
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 | Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Sydney | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Sydney won 2 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Macarthur | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | Macarthur won 1 of the last 3 |
| 7 | Auckland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | Auckland won 1 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | Brisbane Roar won 1 of the last 2 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 3 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 | Adelaide United won 0 of the last 2 |