Celta Vigo v 
Levante
- Over 1.5
- 74%
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Celta Vigo 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.48 – 1.10
Advised bets
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Levante 0
Why this price?
Back Levante 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — Levante to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.08. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.21 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Celta Vigo 1.48, Levante 1.10.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Celta Vigo favoured against Levante
Our model makes Celta Vigo 45% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Levante at 27%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Celta Vigo against 1.10 for Levante — a clear edge to Celta Vigo on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Celta Vigo | Levante | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 2-6-3 | W-D-L | 2-4-5 |
| 1.09 | Pts / game | 0.91 |
| 0.91 | Goals for / game | 1.45 |
| 0.91 | Goals against / game | 1.91 |
| 36% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 36% | BTTS | 64% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 55% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 2-1-2 |
| 0-4-1 | Away record | 0-3-3 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Celta Vigo · Levante
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.8 | Shots | 12.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 2.2 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 14.6 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 43 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.11 | xG | 1.20 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.6 | Shots | 16.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.07 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 12.7 |
| 57 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.00 | xG | 2.14 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Celta Vigo | Metric | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.60 | Shots on target | 5.00 (better) |
| 12.00 | Total shots | 13.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.80 | Corners | 4.20 (better) |
| 48.4 (better) | Possession % | 46.6 |
| 515 (better) | Passes | 415 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.20 | Fouls | 10.40 (better) |
| 1.50 | Offsides | 0.33 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Celta Vigo wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Levante wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Celta Vigo v Levante2–32026-05-12
- Levante v Celta Vigo1–22025-11-02
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +34 | 30 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +14 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +18 | 27 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 23 | Real Betis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | Celta Vigo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 12 | Getafe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 | Elche won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |