AS Roma v 
Sassuolo
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 70%
- Over 3.5
- 49%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- AS Roma 67%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.49 – 1.12
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AS Roma favoured against Sassuolo
Our model makes AS Roma 67% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 18% and Sassuolo at 15%. The goal projection is 2.49 for AS Roma against 1.12 for Sassuolo — a commanding edge to AS Roma on expected output. A combined 3.61 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. AS Roma is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-1 8%
- 3-1 8%
- 3-0 7%
This season
| AS Roma | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 7-3-0 | W-D-L | 2-2-6 |
| 2.40 | Pts / game | 0.80 |
| 2.80 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 2.60 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 50% | BTTS | 90% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 4-1-0 | Home record | 2-1-2 |
| 3-2-0 | Away record | 0-1-4 |
| W2 | Streak | L4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AS Roma · Sassuolo
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.3 | Shots | 11.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.34 | Cards | 1.63 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 53 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.96 | xG | 1.13 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 14.4 | Shots | 15.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 7.1 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.29 |
| 7.9 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 47 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.82 | xG | 2.02 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| AS Roma | Metric | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 3.00 |
| 2.17 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.80 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 19.80 (better) | Total shots | 12.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 3.60 |
| 63.0 (better) | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 600 (better) | Passes | 479 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 | Fouls | 9.40 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- AS Roma wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Sassuolo wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- AS Roma v Sassuolo2–02026-01-10
- Sassuolo v AS Roma0–12025-10-26
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 28 | Lazio won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | Inter won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 24 | AS Roma won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 | Como won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | AC Milan won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 20 | Frosinone won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 | Juventus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Bologna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 16 | Cagliari won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 14 | Napoli won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | Torino won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 | Genoa won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | Lecce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 | Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 | Parma won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 | Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 | Monza won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -13 | 6 | Venezia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 | Udinese won 0 of the last 5 |