Romania
Romanian Liga I predictions
Every Romanian Liga I match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Romanian Liga I page.
3 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is FC Botosani, 48% against Oţelul at home; the most evenly balanced game is CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Craiova (CFR 1907 Cluj 28%, draw 27%, Universitatea Craiova 45%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Botosani v Oţelul, at 2.86.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
Mon 9 Nov
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Match by match
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v FC VoluntariSun 8 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 48%, the draw 25% and FC Voluntari 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 12th on 15 points from 14; FC Voluntari are 15th on 8 points from 14. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); FC Voluntari have lost all of their last five.
CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea CraiovaSun 8 Nov, 17:00
Our model makes CFR 1907 Cluj 28%, the draw 27% and Universitatea Craiova 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Universitatea Craiova to win at 45%. CFR 1907 Cluj are 9th on 18 points from 14; Universitatea Craiova are 2nd on 32 points from 14. CFR 1907 Cluj have won one of their last five; Universitatea Craiova have won all of their last five. Two of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.
FC Botosani v OţelulMon 9 Nov, 18:00
Our model makes FC Botosani 48%, the draw 25% and Oţelul 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. FC Botosani are 13th on 14 points from 14; Oţelul are 14th on 12 points from 14. FC Botosani have won one of their last five; Oţelul are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.
The numbers this season
Romanian Liga I has averaged 2.66 goals a game over 116 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 47% of them and both sides scoring in 48%. Home sides have won 53% of matches, 25% have been drawn and away sides have won 22%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Romanian Liga I predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Romanian Liga I predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Romanian Liga I?
- 53% of matches this season, over 116 played, with 25% drawn and 22% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.66 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 47%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.