FC Botosani v 
Oţelul
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- FC Botosani 48%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.66 – 1.20
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 2 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Botosani favoured against Oţelul
Our model makes FC Botosani 48% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 25% and Oţelul at 27%. The goal projection is 1.66 for FC Botosani against 1.20 for Oţelul — a clear edge to FC Botosani on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| FC Botosani | Oţelul | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 3-5-6 | W-D-L | 2-6-6 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 0.86 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.14 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 1.57 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 43% |
| 57% | BTTS | 64% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 3-2-1 | Home record | 2-4-2 |
| 0-3-5 | Away record | 0-2-4 |
| L3 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Botosani · Oţelul
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.3 | Shots | 20.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.42 | Cards | 2.73 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.90 | xG | 1.70 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 3.33 | Cards | 3.27 |
| 15.5 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 45 |
| 2.15 | xG | 1.59 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| FC Botosani | Metric | Oţelul |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.40 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 2.05 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.75 | Shots on target | 6.25 (better) |
| 11.25 | Total shots | 20.25 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.50 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 50.5 | Possession % | 54.0 (better) |
| 410 | Passes | 459 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 | Fouls | 11.25 |
| 1.75 | Offsides | 0.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 1.75 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.50 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FC Botosani wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Oţelul wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- FC Botosani v Oţelul1–12026-04-25
- FC Botosani v Oţelul0–02026-02-02
- Oţelul v FC Botosani0–12025-09-14
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Universitatea Craiova | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | +24 | 32 | Universitatea Craiova won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +10 | 30 | Rapid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 23 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | FCSB | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -10 | 15 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | FC Botosani | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -6 | 12 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |