Predicted Edge

England

Premier League predictions

Every Premier League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Premier League page.

20 matches in the next 14 days, 10 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Manchester City, 67% against Ipswich at home; the most evenly balanced game is Tottenham v Coventry (Tottenham 35%, draw 27%, Coventry 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Everton v Chelsea, at 3.73.

Every match, one prediction

Tomorrow

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Sun 18 Oct

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Mon 19 Oct

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Fri 23 Oct

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Sat 24 Oct

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Sun 25 Oct

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Match by match

Everton v ChelseaSat 17 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Everton 33%, the draw 22% and Chelsea 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. Everton are 5th on 10 points from 6; Chelsea are 6th on 10 points from 6. Everton are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Chelsea have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Everton wins, draws and Chelsea wins.

Fulham v Hull CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Fulham 40%, the draw 30% and Hull City 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Fulham are 20th on 2 points from 6; Hull City are 8th on 9 points from 6. Fulham are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Hull City have won one of their last five.

Manchester City v IpswichSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Manchester City 67%, the draw 19% and Ipswich 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Manchester City to win at 67%. Manchester City are 1st on 18 points from 6; Ipswich are 10th on 9 points from 6. Manchester City have won all of their last five; Ipswich have won two of their last five.

Brentford v LiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Brentford 42%, the draw 25% and Liverpool 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Brentford are 4th on 10 points from 6; Liverpool are 9th on 9 points from 6. Brentford are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Liverpool have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Newcastle v Aston VillaSat 17 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Newcastle 35%, the draw 23% and Aston Villa 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 6; Aston Villa are 16th on 5 points from 6. Newcastle have won two of their last five; Aston Villa have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.

Bournemouth v SunderlandSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Bournemouth 46%, the draw 27% and Sunderland 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Bournemouth to win at 46%. Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from 6; Sunderland are 17th on 4 points from 6. Bournemouth are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Sunderland have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Brighton v Crystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Brighton 53%, the draw 25% and Crystal Palace 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Brighton to win at 53%. Brighton are 3rd on 13 points from 6; Crystal Palace are 12th on 7 points from 6. Brighton have won three of their last five; Crystal Palace have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Leeds v Manchester UnitedSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Leeds 33%, the draw 26% and Manchester United 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Leeds are 7th on 9 points from 6; Manchester United are 13th on 6 points from 6. Leeds have won one of their last five; Manchester United have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Nottingham Forest v ArsenalSun 18 Oct, 16:30

Our model makes Nottingham Forest 27%, the draw 28% and Arsenal 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Arsenal to win at 46%. Nottingham Forest are 15th on 5 points from 6; Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points from 6. Nottingham Forest have won one of their last five; Arsenal have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Tottenham v CoventryMon 19 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Tottenham 35%, the draw 27% and Coventry 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Tottenham are 19th on 3 points from 6; Coventry are 14th on 6 points from 6. Tottenham are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Coventry have won two of their last five.

The numbers this season

Premier League has averaged 2.95 goals a game over 60 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 32% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Premier League predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Premier League predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Premier League?
38% of matches this season, over 60 played, with 32% drawn and 30% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.95 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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