Newcastle v Aston Villa

12th0–110th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Newcastle		Aston Villa
16	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	5
14	Fouls	11
6	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	0
407	Passes	431
49%	Possession %	51%
1.07	xG	1.63

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Aston Villa 42%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.81

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.1%	3.02	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.2%	2.21	2.52 Betano	39.7%	+5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.8%	1.82	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-8.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.8%	1.48	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	+1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.2%	3.11	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-5.8
Match result	Newcastle	34.7%	2.88	2.40 Bet365	41.7%	-7.0
Match result	Draw	23.3%	4.29	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-2.3
Match result	Aston Villa	42.0%	2.38	3.30 Dafabet	30.3%	+11.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.3%	1.16	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+3.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.7%	7.30	5.40 BetVictor	18.5%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.9%	1.50	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+6.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aston Villa favoured against Newcastle

Our model makes Newcastle 35% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Aston Villa at 42%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Newcastle against 1.81 for Aston Villa — a slight edge to Aston Villa on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Newcastle and Aston Villa
Newcastle		Aston Villa
10	Played	10
3-3-4	W-D-L	3-4-3
1.20	Pts / game	1.30
1.30	Goals for / game	1.40
1.60	Goals against / game	1.70
50%	Over 2.5	60%
60%	BTTS	60%
20%	Clean sheets	20%
20%	Failed to score	30%
1-2-2	Home record	1-2-2
2-1-2	Away record	2-2-1
D1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Newcastle · Aston Villa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.9	Shots	14.3
3.7	Shots on target	4.5
4.3	Corners	3.3
2.63	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	11.3
52	Possession %	44
1.24	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	17.5
4.7	Shots on target	5.5
4.9	Corners	6.5
1.86	Cards	3.33
8.9	Fouls	15.7
48	Possession %	56
1.66	xG	1.94
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newcastle	Metric	Aston Villa
1.60	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.94	Expected goals (xG)	1.73 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	7.25 (better)
12.60	Total shots	15.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	5.25
53.8 (better)	Possession %	46.0
451 (better)	Passes	402
	Tackles
11.40 (better)	Fouls	12.50
1.40 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Newcastle wins: 1
Draws: 1
Aston Villa wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.75
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 25%

Newcastle v Aston Villa0–12026-10-17
Aston Villa v Newcastle1–32026-02-14
Newcastle v Aston Villa0–22026-01-25
Aston Villa v Newcastle0–02025-08-16

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5