Manchester City v Ipswich

3rd3–214th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Manchester City		Ipswich
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	3
8	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	5
753	Passes	319
70%	Possession %	30%
3.61	xG	1.72

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Manchester City 67%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.33 – 1.00

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Manchester City	66.7%	1.50	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-13.3
Match result	Draw	19.1%	5.25	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	+5.7
Match result	Ipswich	14.3%	7.00	13.00 Betfair	7.7%	+6.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.1%	6.64	9.00 BetVictor	11.1%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.7%	1.55	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.3%	2.83	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.7%	2.34	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.3%	1.74	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.5%	1.74	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	+4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.5%	2.35	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	-1.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Manchester City favoured against Ipswich

Our model makes Manchester City 67% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 19% and Ipswich at 14%. The goal projection is 2.33 for Manchester City against 1.00 for Ipswich — a commanding edge to Manchester City on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Manchester City is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 2-0 10%; 1-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 8%

This season

Season records for Manchester City and Ipswich
Manchester City		Ipswich
10	Played	10
7-0-3	W-D-L	3-2-5
2.10	Pts / game	1.10
2.10	Goals for / game	1.50
1.30	Goals against / game	2.00
70%	Over 2.5	70%
60%	BTTS	80%
30%	Clean sheets	0%
10%	Failed to score	20%
4-0-1	Home record	2-1-2
3-0-2	Away record	1-1-3
L3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manchester City · Ipswich

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.3	Shots	10.7
5.5	Shots on target	3.3
6.0	Corners	2.3
1.17	Cards	2.33
11.5	Fouls	10.5
66	Possession %	49
2.19	xG	1.21
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	15.7
4.7	Shots on target	4.2
3.7	Corners	4.8
2.87	Cards	2.33
16.0	Fouls	11.3
35	Possession %	51
1.50	xG	2.16
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Manchester City	Metric	Ipswich
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
2.09 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.47
	Big chances
5.60 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
14.20 (better)	Total shots	11.20
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.60
61.0 (better)	Possession %	45.6
618 (better)	Passes	421
	Tackles
11.20 (better)	Fouls	11.40
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.50	Red cards	0.33 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Manchester City wins: 1
Draws: 0
Ipswich wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Manchester City v Ipswich3–22026-10-17

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5